
An analysis of the voting of different demographic categories during the midterm elections in the United States.
The mid-term elections saw a Republican defeat marked by a shift of young people, African-American and Hispanic voters towards the Democratic camp, in particular in reaction to the migration policies of the Trump administration.
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The midterm elections resulted in a significant loss of seats for the Republican Party in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
The mid-term elections in the United States, Tuesday November 3, harshly punished Donald Trump. Voters favored Democrats over Republicans. By losing at least seven seats in the Senate and 25 elected to the House of Representatives, the Republicans no longer have an absolute majority in either chamber of Congress. Who are the Americans who inflicted such a setback on Donald Trump and his party? A survey carried out by the SSRS institute for the Associated Press (AP) news agency provides reading keys to understand the voters' vote.
Young voters overwhelmingly opposed Donald Trump by voting for Democratic candidates. Indeed, according to the survey, 72% of those under 30 voted for the blue camp in the House of Representatives, while only 25% slipped a Republican ballot into the polls.
The higher we go in the age groups, the less the balance weighs in favor of the Democrats. However, it is only among those over 65 that the majority of votes swing towards the Republican camp. This finding marks a change from 2024, when young voters were more evenly split between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, according to the AP poll conducted at the time.
This vote correlates with the fact that almost half of young voters say they are "angry" about the situation in the country, explains Associated Press. However, young people represent only a small part of the voters. Only one in ten voters is under 30 this year. Their vote change, from Republicans to Democrats, is therefore relatively limited. Furthermore, 60% of voters aged 30 to 44 voted for the Democrats, while they were 50% in 2024. The groups over 44 years old distributed their votes in proportions quite similar to 2024.
African-American and Hispanic voters are turning their backs on Trumpism
Young voters are not the only ones to have turned away from the Republican vote. Only 35% of Hispanic voters voted for Donald Trump's party in the House of Representatives. In the 2024 US presidential election, they were 43%. Black and African-American voters mobilized at the polls at 89% for the Democrats, a plebiscite even more supported than in 2024 when 83% of them voted for Kamala Harris.
While African-American and Latino communities have been particularly targeted by arbitrary arrests for several months by ICE, the immigration police, this vote against Donald Trump is not surprising. According to the Deportation Data Project from the California universities of Berkeley and UCLA, since the start of Donald Trump's second term in January 2025, approximately 580,000 people have been arrested by ICE. In a survey published a few days before the midterms, voters were even worried about the presence of immigration police near polling stations.
The Republicans come out slightly ahead only among white voters, with 51% of votes for Donald Trump's camp. A lead that still weighs, because this group of voters represents 72% of the electorate for the 2026 midterms.

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