Wall Street before Fed decision: Focus on interest rate forecasts

The interest rate increase is priced in - the Fed's further course is not. Wall Street is heading for a slight recovery in seven sessions after six days of losses. The Nasdaq futures gain around 0.5 percent, the S&P futures around 0.2 percent. An increase of 0.25 percentage points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent is expected for today's Fed decision.

The new interest rate forecasts and Kevin Warsh's statements will be decisive. JPMorgan's market intelligence team believes two rate hikes, in September and December, are more likely than three. However, this assessment assumes that an agreement in the Middle East will cause oil prices to fall significantly before the end of the year. According to the team, an increase without concrete indications of further steps could even enable the S&P 500 to gain between 0.25 and 0.75 percent.

Meanwhile, cost pressure remains significant: Brent oil costs just under $108, while ten-year US government bonds yield around five percent. J.B. shows how strongly the burdens are now affecting corporate profits. Hunt: The transport group expects five to ten percent less profit in the third quarter than in the previous quarter, due, among other things, to higher transport costs and delayed fuel surcharges.

In the technology sector, talks between Intel and SK Hynix about possible memory chip production in Ohio are attracting attention. However, SK Hynix emphasizes that no concrete plans or agreements have been finalized so far. The hope for today: higher key interest rates, but no prospect of a long cycle of interest rate increases.