When it comes to selling goods abroad, the USA is still number one for German companies. The German economy no longer exports to any country. About every tenth euro in foreign trade is earned in the United States. But this partnership has cracked.
The volume of exports to the USA has fallen significantly. The Federal Statistical Office reported a decline of a good six percent for the first half of the year. According to the data, in the first quarter the decline was even twelve percent. Economists see this as a consequence of the trade policy of US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly imposed new tariffs on imports since his re-election.
German companies active in the United States fear new obstacles. Helena Melnikov, Managing Director of the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), said in the ARD morning magazine: "Because the USA is so immensely important for us, we of course always look at the local German companies. And around half of them tell us that they see the economic policy there as the biggest business risk." According to Melnikov, reliability and continuity are therefore immensely important for German companies in the USA.
The Democrats' strong performance in the midterm elections is now fueling hope that this reliability will slowly return. The political situation has become more predictable for German companies. Ultimately, US President Trump and the Democrats in Congress can now block each other's plans.
This hope is also visible on the financial markets - at least in the short term. As a result of the midterm elections on Thursday, the DAX has now reached a new all-time high. Even if the leading German index is losing significantly again today in the wake of the US markets, some analysts on the stock market are speculating that the new majorities in Congress will bring more planning security for companies in the medium term.
At the moment, however, this is nothing more than a leap of faith. Economists expect the tariff dispute with the USA to continue. President Trump is likely to try to bypass Congress and impose his policies via presidential decree wherever possible.
Carsten Brzeski from ING Bank emphasized in an interview with the ARD financial editorial team that the economy must prepare for trade tensions to arise again. "We will feel in Europe that we have a president who will probably be extremely tight-lipped in his own country and will then try to attract attention through foreign policy and trade policy."
Jörg Krämer from Commerzbank sees it similarly. He also believes it is possible that there will now be new attacks on Iran - with negative consequences for the price of oil. "I think the risks for Germany outweigh the risks because Trump is letting off steam in foreign policy. Unlike domestically, where both chambers of parliament have a democratic majority."
On the other hand, there is an expectation among economists that the Democrats in Congress will also have an influence on foreign policy. They could work towards de-escalation in the Middle East. It is possible that the Republicans will also demand this more strongly after the election defeat. Many see the war in Iran as the main reason for the poor performance in the midterms.
A de-escalation would be positive for the German economy, Holger Schmieding from Berenberg Bank told the ARD financial editorial team: "The probability increases that the Iran war will be over in the foreseeable future and that oil prices can fall again." This in turn is good for the purchasing power of citizens and for the costs of companies, says Schmieding.
The price of oil has already fallen significantly this week. The price for a barrel of North Sea Brent fell back below the psychologically important mark of $100. However, it remains unclear whether the signs of relaxation will continue.
