Tuesday's midterm elections will at their heart determine control of Congress for the remainder of Donald Trump's presidency. U.S. voters will decide whether Trump will maintain his Republican iron grip on Washington or recede into lame-duck status after a Democratic triumph.
If Republicans win, Trump could spend another two years facing little congressional resistance and pushing through major policy packages. If Democrats win one or both chambers, the president's remaining legislative priorities would be severely kneecapped, and even the basic functions of government could become gridlocked.
Oddsmakers and public polls placed Democrats in a favorable position ahead of Election Day, especially for flipping control of the Republican-held House. Still, the balance of power will not be decided until ballots are counted — a process that could take days or, in some cases, weeks to complete. The Senate is expected to be particularly close, and if the balance of power comes down to Alaska, the nation may have to wait while the state counts.
"The election results could trigger an immediate market reaction, particularly as the Senate outcome becomes clearer," the Washington Policy Strategy Group of Stifel wrote Sunday in an analyst report, where it predicted Democrats will win the House while the Senate remains too close to call. "However, the market's knee-jerk trade could reverse as investors recognize that gridlock remains the most likely policy outcome in either case."
Republicans also control the Senate and with a larger majority than in the House.
If Democrats capture one chamber of Congress, Washington policymaking would become significantly more gridlocked. Single-party budget reconciliation bills, the procedural vehicle for most major spending and policy changes in the current status quo of tight congressional margins, would become impossible. Bipartisanship would be required to advance legislation, making must-pass bills such as government funding packages, defense spending and the looming debt ceiling hike more important — and more contentious.
In a divided Congress, the party that doesn't control the White House typically uses moments including government funding and debt-ceiling hikes to extract concessions from the majority party, a practice that can lead to brinksmanship.
"If Republicans defy the conventional wisdom and maintain their Senate majority, then we would expect a relief rally in the sectors that might react negatively to a Democratic victory," Stifel wrote. "Democrats would still govern the House and gridlock would prevail. In this scenario, Senate Republicans would act as a check on both the Democrats and many of Trump's populist impulses."
Democrats are also widely expected to use any majority in Congress to launch investigations into the White House and businesses that have worked with the Trump administration. The majority party gains subpoena power in congressional committees.
Polling indicates a Democratic sweep of the House and Senate is possible. In that case, Democrats may more aggressively pursue party-line reconciliation measures that wouldn't become law but would give the party a megaphone ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Trump would still have the ability to veto legislation that Congress passed, severely limiting Democratic bills' prospects of becoming law.
Must-pass legislation would be slightly easier to get through Congress if Democrats controlled both chambers. But deals would still need to be brokered with the White House, and the Senate's 60-vote filibuster threshold could still prove a hurdle that requires bipartisanship. Whichever party gains Senate control is highly unlikely to have at least 60 seats.
Democratic lawmakers in both the House and Senate would jump at the chance to lead investigations of the White House and business if given the opportunity.
In either a divided Congress or unified Democratic Congress, analysts expect Trump's use of executive orders will increase due to congressional gridlock.
There is a possibility Republicans maintain control of both chambers of Congress. In that case, Trump's remaining legislative agenda could continue to be enacted, and the status quo would be maintained.
Democrats would still hold some leverage, largely due to the Senate's 60-vote filibuster threshold, but would be limited in investigating the White House and business.
