Why China’s export engine may hit a ceiling as trading partners face limits

While China’s export engine still has room to grow, many of its trading partners may be approaching the limit of how much more they can absorb, which could place a ceiling on further growth over the coming years, according to a Goldman Sachs report.

“At least over the next few years, there is still room for Chinese exports to maintain their strong momentum,” analysts said in the report led by the American investment bank’s chief China economist Hui Shan on Wednesday. “Over the longer term, however, stronger economic growth in importing economies will be required for continued Chinese export gains.”

Even under the bank’s most conservative projection, China’s real exports could grow by 8 per cent annually in the near term, despite the country posting a record US$1.2 trillion trade surplus last year.

Much of that momentum was driven by supply-side factors in China, according to the report, with export volumes rising since 2021 even as profitability across industries declined. In the automotive sector, for example, export value nearly doubled between 2021 and 2025, while profit margins fell from 6.4 per cent to 4.8 per cent.