WMO warns of super-sized El Niño – several hurricanes are moving over the Pacific

Looking at the weather maps over the tropical Pacific off the American coast, anyone can guess why the World Meteorological Agency (WMO) in Geneva is now warning of an “El Niño of super proportions”. Four hurricanes, including three “monster hurricanes” in the upper categories, are currently moving like a train across the largest ocean. Marie, Lowell, Karina and Edouard draw their enormous energy from a sea surface that has never been so heated at this time of year, and on their journey they threaten Pacific islands such as Hawaii, but also the mainland coast.

The hurricanes over the Pacific are just one extreme weather symptom of many that are associated with the exorbitant warming of the tropical eastern Pacific. And there will be many to come: droughts, floods and new forest fires are threatening around the globe. With “one hundred percent certainty,” said WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo in Geneva, this El Niño will last until at least February 2027. The climate phenomenon with its global impact, which recurs every few years and often alternates with the cold anomaly La Niña - the meteorological counterpart of El Niño - has already been building up in the Pacific at record-breaking speed in the first few months of this year.

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Unprecedented food shortages are feared

Strong westerly winds over the sea, which are repeated to this day, have already driven huge masses of warm water from the western to the eastern Pacific. The temperatures off Ecuador and Peru are currently almost six degrees above normal, and the energetic amounts of warm water are raising the sea level by a few dozen centimeters over a huge area. In many of the traditionally hardest-hit regions in South America, Africa, Oceania and Asia, national weather and disaster services are already preparing for historic weather extremes, according to the WMO. The United Nations Disaster Risk Management Agency (UNDRR) is also working closely with agricultural organizations amid fears of unprecedented food shortages.

In fact, all data currently point to the strongest El Niño in at least 155 years. Temperature deviations from normal values ​​of plus 3.5 degrees are expected in the Central Pacific as early as October - such anomalies do not occur even at the peak of the climate phenomenon around the turn of the year. A Super El Niño, the highest category, begins with a deviation of plus two degrees.

It is not finally clear why El Niño, of all things, has been building up so extremely for months. However, it has now been scientifically proven that climate change is now measurably increasing the climate phenomenon. And the oceans have actually fallen out of the usual range in many areas of the world this year with marine heat waves and a global record temperature.

However, this does not mean that the disaster balance after this El Niño will be historic, the WMO pointed out. The extreme intensity of this El Niño does not necessarily have to maximize the damage, because regionally determined influencing factors - including other atmospheric phenomena - could limit the extent of the El Niño consequences.