History says that the 2026 WNBA Finals are already set; it's just a matter of when the Golden State Valkyries and Atlanta Dream will officially punch their tickets. The Valkyries have taken a 2-0 lead over the reigning champion Las Vegas Aces, while the Dream are up 2-0 on the New York Liberty in their respective semifinal series, both of which will resume Friday.
In WNBA history, teams that go up 2-0 in a series are 20-0. That is in part due to a fairly small sample size, but it is more so a reflection of the WNBA's playoff format.
Best-of-five series weren't introduced in the WNBA until 2005 and were reserved for the Finals until 2016. Starting in 2016, when the league altered the playoff format to select the top eight teams regardless of conference affiliation, the semifinals were expanded to best-of-five. And as of last season, the Finals are now best-of-seven.
So for the first two decades of the league's history, there were only 11 series in which it was even possible for a team to take a 2-0 lead, and up until the 2026 Finals, the only way to pull off a 2-0 comeback was to win three consecutive games in a best-of-five series, presumably against a much better team.
As such, it makes sense that no team has ever been able to pull off what the Aces and Liberty are about to attempt. As the semifinals shift to Las Vegas and Brooklyn, no one is giving either team much of a chance. But which team has a better chance to make history?
Here's what our experts had to say.
Who has better chance at coming back from 0-2 deficit?
Gibbs: Let's caveat this: I picked the Liberty and Aces to win these series, and didn't think either team would go winless in the first two games, even though they started on the road. But both the Dream and Valkyries have played inspired basketball so far and have been the better teams, bar none. Recency bias is real, and right now, it's hard to see either of these teams advancing to the WNBA Finals.
But, if any team is going to make WNBA history, it is going to be one of these squads -- championship cores with the two best players in the world, Breanna Stewart and A'ja Wilson, leading the way. I'm completely split on which one has the best shot, though.
The Liberty are, in my opinion, simply a better team than the Aces. They have more depth, length and versatility, and just a few days ago against the Minnesota Lynx, they looked unstoppable as they knocked out the No. 1 seed. The physicality of the Dream has clearly rocked them -- they had 19 turnovers in Game 1 and 16 in Game 2. That is possible to clean up. If Stewart keeps doing Stewie things, Jonquel Jones and Leonie Fiebich rediscover their first-round form and Sabrina Ionescu recreates magic in Barclays, which she's been wont to do in the playoffs, it is easy to see how New York could turn this around -- especially if Jordin Canada and DeWanna Bonner come back to earth a bit offensively. But right now, the Liberty look gassed; it is hard to trust Liberty coach Chris DeMarco to push the right buttons and, to use an official playoff stat, the Dream are absolutely crushing the Liberty in terms of vibes and cohesiveness, having won nine games in a row and 13 of their last 14.
While I'm worried about DeMarco, I'm also worried that Aces coach Becky Hammon is simply out of buttons to push in Vegas. They were thin coming into the postseason with NaLyssa Smith out and Dana Evans and Stephanie Talbot both in questionable health, and now Jewell Loyd injured her leg in Game 1, was out for Game 2 and is questionable for Game 3. While Valkyries coach Natalie Nakase truly trusts 10 players on her roster, Hammon struggles to get to five.
The only reason I believe the Aces can turn things around is that they have Wilson, who just won her fifth MVP. And honestly? That's a pretty great reason. If Loyd returns and Jackie Young can get closer to the 48.8% she shot from the field during the regular season, rather than the 27.7% she's averaging this series, the Aces can beat the Valkyries three times in a row. After all, Vegas swept the regular-season series.
Maloney: Let's start with Aces-Valkyries. There's no reason to trust the Valkyries' offense, which routinely goes ice cold for long stretches. They're shooting 39.4% for the series, and that could always get worse. But we know their defense will show up, and the Aces haven't found any consistent answers there. Jackie Young has been shut down (25 points on 22 shots), A'ja Wilson hasn't been able to dominate and they're shooting 38.7% as a team. So far, their Aces' best offense has been getting to the free-throw line, where they're 34 of 41 (82.9%) in the series.
