New Medium Term Program announced: 2027-2029 targets

Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz shared the new Medium Term Program (MTP) covering the period 2027-2029 with the public at the meeting held at the Presidential Complex. In the program prepared in partnership with the Ministry of Treasury and Finance and the Presidency of Strategy and Budget; While historical data on growth, inflation, employment, current account deficit and budget balance were updated, the targets for the next 3 years were revealed in figures.

GROWTH AND NATIONAL INCOME TARGETS

Due to the slowdown in global trade and geopolitical risks, the growth forecast for 2026 was updated to 3.3 percent (it was stated that 1.2 points of this growth resulted from total factor productivity). Growth targets for the coming years are listed as follows:

2027: 4.2 percent

2028: 4.6 percent

2029: 5.0 percent

By the end of 2026, the total national income is expected to exceed 1.8 trillion dollars and the per capita national income to exceed 20 thousand dollars.

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UPDATED

The inflation rate, which reached 75.5 percent in May 2024 and reached 31.5 percent as of August 2026, is expected to complete 2026 at 28.4 percent. According to CBRT data, it was claimed that war conditions had an additional effect of approximately 7 points on inflation. Targeted inflation rates by years:

2027: 21.0 percent

2028: 13.5 percent

2029: 9.0 percent

FOREIGN TRADE, CURRENT DEFICIT AND TOURISM DATA

Due to the increase in global energy and commodity prices, foreign trade forecasts for 2026 were revised upwards:

Energy Imports:

From 63 billion dollars to 71 billion dollars,

Foreign Trade Deficit:

It was increased from $96 billion to $105 billion.

Tourism Revenues:

It was reduced from $68 billion to $65 billion.

Export:

As of August, it reached 280 billion dollars on an annualized basis. The share of medium and high technology products in exports increased to 44.1 percent.

While the ratio of current account deficit to national income is expected to be 2.3 percent in 2026, this ratio is aimed to be reduced to 1.9 percent in 2027, 1.8 percent in 2028 and 1.6 percent in 2029.

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT TARGETS

It is planned to provide a total of 2.1 million additional jobs to the economy during the program period. Unemployment rate targets by year were determined as follows:

2026: 8.1 percent

2027: 8.0 percent

2028: 7.8 percent

2029: 7.6 percent

Budget Deficit and Earthquake Expenditures

The budget deficit to national income ratio is expected to be 3.1 percent in 2026. (Last year, this rate was predicted to be 3.5 percent). The budget deficit target was announced as 3.5 percent for 2027 and 2.8 percent for 2029, which is the end of the program period.

Earthquake Expenditures:

It was calculated that 5.4 trillion TL (104 billion dollars) would be spent on the earthquake zone for the 2023-2026 period, at 2026 prices. This figure is expected to exceed $116 billion by the end of 2027. To date, the construction of 455 thousand independent sections has been completed for beneficiaries. Earthquake expenditures, which are on average 25-26 billion dollars annually, are expected to decrease to approximately 10 billion dollars next year.

Public Debt:

It was shared that the ratio of Türkiye's EU-defined general government debt stock to national income is around 20 percent.

FINANCIAL INDICATORS AND SAVING MEASURES