Although product reliability has been scrutinized by the market, TrendForce is still optimistic about the competitive impact of Apple’s entry into the foldable phone market. (Bloomberg file photo)
[Reporter Fang Weijie/Taipei Report] Apple’s first foldable phone iPhone Duo has been available for pre-order for less than a week, and the delivery date of some orders has been extended to January 2027. However, the first wave of user reviews have been polarizing. In addition to the multi-tasking experience of the large screen being praised, the damage to the inner screen and high repair costs have also caused concern. TrendForce, a research organization, pointed out that the reliability of folding screens involves multi-layer material stress control and hinge support design. The focus of subsequent engineering improvements will be on hinge stroke, support height, fitting accuracy and assembly tolerance.
According to TrendForce analysis, Duo focuses on low-crease design. Its OLED screen is composed of multiple layers of materials such as cover, optical glue, display, and packaging. During the bending process, each layer of material is subjected to varying degrees of tensile, compression, and shear stress. It is necessary to reduce the strain of the functional layer through the bending curvature, material thickness and modulus configuration, and proper slippage of the adhesive layer to reduce the strain of the functional layer and improve the recovery ability of the screen after unfolding.
In addition, Duo disperses reflected light through the nano-texture on the screen surface, reducing the visibility of the reflective tape in the fold area, and improves the brightness uniformity in the fold area with the structural design. However, visual crease improvement and long-term use reliability are still different issues. The dynamic support ability of the hinge during repeated opening and closing processes has become an important factor affecting the durability of the screen.
TrendForce pointed out that when the screen is unfolded, the waterdrop-shaped hinge must provide sufficient support to maintain the flatness of the panel and touch stability; when it is closed, it must provide appropriate space so that the panel can be stored according to the designed curvature. If the central support is not sufficiently retreated, additional contact and local stress concentration may occur. This is also the inference proposed by the recent disassembly analysis of the Duo damaged screen, but it cannot be determined as the exact cause of the screen damage.
For a small number of devices with abnormal internal screens, Apple has provided replacement services. TrendForce believes that in order to further improve product reliability in the future, it is necessary to strengthen the coordinated control of hinge stroke, support height, fitting accuracy and assembly tolerance to reduce the potential impact of repeated opening and closing on the display panel.
Although product reliability has been scrutinized by the market, TrendForce is still optimistic about the competitive impact of Apple's entry into the folding phone market. It is estimated that global folding phone shipments will only grow slightly by 0.5% in 2026. However, Apple's first folding iPhone will be able to ship approximately 5 million units and achieve a market share of 24.8% in its first year of launch. When the overall market size is close to being flat, it will accelerate the redistribution of market shares of existing brands.
Looking forward to the follow-up development, TrendForce pointed out that the competition of foldable mobile phones will gradually shift from appearance innovation to multi-tasking efficiency. Although Duo provides a larger display space, allowing document reading, AI summarization and content editing to be done in parallel, some applications still have problems such as black borders and underutilization of the screen. In addition, large screens increase power consumption management requirements. In the future, continued improvements in software adaptation, display technology and power management will still be needed to fully realize the application value of foldable phones.
