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Back川習會未獲重大突破,許毓仁:台灣最危險的一句話藏在祝福裡
川習會未獲重大突破,許毓仁:台灣最危險的一句話藏在祝福裡
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自由时报1 hour agoPolitics3 min readChinaView translation

川習會未獲重大突破,許毓仁:台灣最危險的一句話藏在祝福裡

美智庫研究員許毓仁分析川習會,認為習近平將「民族復興」與統一台灣連結,台灣應警覺軍售進度。

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美國總統川普與中國國家主席習近平於白宮會晤,雙方未達重大突破。前立委許毓仁分析,習近平將「中華民族偉大復興」與統一台灣連結,並指出美方對台軍售持續擱置,台灣應關注軍售解凍時機,而非僅看峰會氣氛。

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Why It Matters

川普與習近平於白宮舉行峰會,討論美中關係及台灣議題。140億美元對台軍售案自五月北京峰會後持續擱置。

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美國總統川普於美東時間24日在白宮會晤中國國家主席習近平,外媒指出,雙方未在會談中取得重大突破。但習近平在歡迎式上說「實現中華民族偉大復興」與「讓美國再次偉大」可以並行不悖,美智庫資深研究員、前立委許毓仁指出,對台灣來說「最危險的一句話藏在祝福裡」。

許毓仁今日在臉書發文,整理自己在美國之音(VOA)現場直播中,評論川習會與白宮國宴的幾個重點。首先,他認為美中關係是「管理」不是「突破」,這次峰會的基調是「穩定」,不是「交易」,雙方都刻意保留籌碼。

許毓仁分析,在重點「台灣」議題上,根據新華社報導,習近平要求美方堅持「反對台獨」的正確立場,並慎重處理台灣問題。更值得注意的是他在歡迎式上說「實現中華民族偉大復興」與「讓美國再次偉大」可以並行不悖。許毓仁強調,在習的語彙裡,「民族復興」包含統一台灣。「他把台灣議題包裝在最友好的語言裡,這是精心設計。」

此外,140億美元的對台軍售,自五月北京峰會後就一直被擱置,川普本人稱之為潛在的「談判籌碼」,至於何時推進仍未決定。許毓仁認為,這才是台灣真正該警覺的地方。

許毓仁提到,川普在國宴致詞中說「我們代表不同體制,但我們從未相處得這麼好」。他認為,這句話對內是在展示個人外交的成果,對習則是釋放「不挑戰體制」的訊號。國宴首輪祝酒選用的葡萄酒,呼應 1972年尼克森與周恩來的「和平之酒」,他認為川普要的是歷史定位,想把自己放進尼克森的歷史譜系。但對台灣來說,1972年代表的是《上海公報》,也就是美中「一個中國」框架的起點。

另外,習近平則說雙方在許多問題上達成共識,但沒有說明是哪些問題,也沒有宣布具體協議,只是反覆強調「建設性戰略穩定關係」與「大國相處新路」。這句話對內是展示中國與美國平起平坐,對外則是要美方接受中國的「核心利益」。

許毓仁最後表示,這是一場「氣氛大於實質」的峰會。對台灣而言,最該看的不是國宴上的酒杯,而是軍售文件什麼時候解凍。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 對台軍售案將持續作為美中談判籌碼

    Likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 對台軍售何時解凍?
  • 美中雙方達成的共識具體內容為何?

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