Instant retail from comparing speed to combining goods - analysis of highlights of China's third quarterly economic report

Economic Daily reporter Ji Leilei

In the first three quarters of this year, online retail sales of goods and services increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and real-time retail transaction volume maintained double-digit growth.

From coffee and milk tea to fresh fruits and vegetables, from festival consumption to travel... With the characteristics of ready response and quick access, instant retail continues to break through the boundaries of scenarios, continuously expands to all categories and all scenarios, and steadily develops into a normal consumption choice for residents, becoming an important support for expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption.

Release convenience needs

There is no need to stock up on supplies in advance when traveling, there is no need to line up in stores to buy new mobile phones, and friends can enjoy good things instantly when they get together... The changes in consumption that are tangible and tangible show that real-time retail is fully integrated into people's lives.

Meituan flash sale data shows that since this year, sales of disposable travel supplies on the platform have increased by 47% year-on-year, and there are 800,000 instant retail stores covering travel scenarios. Meituan Core Local Business CEO Wang Puzhong believes that instant retail has passed the stage of demand cultivation and network construction, and the next stop is to move from the "store warehouse distribution era" to the "commodity era", which will open up space for product quantity expansion, quality improvement, category innovation, and further expand users' immediate consumption needs.

Consumers’ demands for instant quality and branding are becoming increasingly prominent. September every year is a window period for flagship mobile phones from major brands to launch new products and sell them intensively. Data shows that in September this year, the order volume of JD.com’s mobile phone category increased by more than 70% year-on-year, and the accessories category increased by more than 120%. For example, during the release period of the iPhone 18 Pro, more than 7,000 Apple authorized stores and more than 10,000 front-end warehouses went on sale simultaneously. Within one hour of the sale, more than 30,000 users across the country had signed for it.

From the perspective of category structure, non-rigid needs and daily necessities are rising rapidly. Taobao flash sale data shows that flower orders during this year’s Chinese Valentine’s Day increased 30 times compared with the previous month, and nearly 70% of them were users placing orders to buy flowers for the first time. The consumption potential of lower-tier markets is also continuing to be released. Flower sales in third- and fourth-tier cities increased by 124% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 70% of total flower orders.

"Changes in residents' consumption demand and innovation in business supply are mutually reinforcing." Hong Yong, associate researcher at the Institute of International Innovation and Governance of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, believes that consumers not only pay attention to cost performance, but also increasingly value time cost, service quality and consumption experience. Whether just-in-time retail can retain consumers depends not only on the timeliness of fulfillment, but also on whether the products are complete and the quality is stable.

Achieve a win-win situation for all parties

The development of instant retail is an important starting point for implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and cultivating new consumption. It is also an effective way to serve people's lives and build a modern circulation system. The simultaneous improvement of convenient shopping and experiential consumption provides development space for different retail formats. In the first three quarters of this year, the retail sales of warehouse membership stores above designated size increased by more than 25%, and the retail sales of shopping malls increased by more than 10%.

Instant retail connects a large number of physical supermarkets, convenience stores, and community stores. With the help of mobile and digital technologies, various physical retail formats have significantly expanded the time, space, breadth, and depth of services, and gained new increments in development. Take Meituan’s flash sales as an example. A large number of physical stores are operating on the platform. Currently, there are more than 1 million physical business points on Meituan at 12 noon every day, and more than 350,000 physical business points at 12 midnight. Physical merchants that have access to instant retail have also achieved significant increases in revenue.

Major platforms continue to launch supporting programs to lower the threshold for merchants to participate in instant retail. JD.com will launch an integrated warehousing and distribution service of "instant delivery" in 2025, and innovatively adopts the "shared front warehouse + self-operated distribution" model to create "instant warehousing and enjoy" minute-level instant fulfillment services for physical merchants. Meituan Flash Sale announced that in the next three years, it will invest resources in infrastructure construction, product research and development, and product marketing to industry partners, and jointly build a "30-minute commodity circle" with physical retail.

"Whether physical merchants can continue to benefit is an important criterion for evaluating the effectiveness of the development of just-in-time retail." Hong Yong believes that physical stores are an important supply base for just-in-time retail and are responsible for functions such as stocking, product selection, quality assurance and after-sales service. Instant retail adds channels for physical stores to connect with consumers and promotes the digitization of inventory and order management.

Promote quality and efficiency improvement

"The transformation and upgrading of my country's consumption and the trend towards newness and excellence are the general trend." Wang Guanhua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and head of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said that with the continuous development of the economy and the improvement of people's living standards, the supply of goods and services continues to be optimized, new business forms and new scenarios continue to emerge, and the potential of my country's consumer market is expected to be further released.

The "Instant Retail Industry Development Report (2025)" released by the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce shows that the size of the instant retail market is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2026. At present, the instant retail industry has established multi-level timeliness service systems such as minute level, hour level, 4-hour level, and half-day level.

“The more frequent the demand for instant consumption and the more mature the circulation network, the greater the space for product innovation.” Wang Puzhong believes that the growth logic of instant retail is changing, and industry growth no longer relies on “opening more stores” and “building more warehouses”, but comes from “selling more good products.”

"The contribution of instant retail to expanding domestic demand will ultimately be reflected in whether it meets the demand that was originally inconvenient and whether it increases effective supply, rather than just switching transactions from offline to online." Hong Yong analyzed that the key is to provide convenience to consumers, reasonable returns to merchants, and due protection to riders, forming a sustainable business model.

To this end, the platform must make great efforts to improve operation and distribution efficiency. To expand the sinking market, we should combine population density, consumer demand and delivery distance, give priority to connecting existing supermarkets, convenience stores and other outlets, and reasonably arrange the service scope; improve the transparency of charging and promotion rules, and help small and medium-sized merchants lower the threshold for digital operations. At the same time, merchants must provide solid products and services. Online operations need to do a good job in inventory synchronization, picking and packaging, and after-sales response to reduce problems such as out-of-stocks and mismatches; offline operations should give full play to the advantages of experience, consultation, and community services. In addition, supervision and public services must also coordinate and follow up. Strengthen the supervision of unfair competition, product quality and platform rules, unblock the complaint channels for merchants and riders, and incorporate needs such as delivery stops, convenient pickup and delivery, and rider rest into community supporting construction, so that instant retail can be better integrated into daily life.