
Last July, while the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was being implemented, President Fezeshikian reprimanded the hardliners when the Iranian military attacked three civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, but the attack was carried out arbitrarily without leadership approval, and the conflict intensified afterward as the hardliners pressured the pragmatic faction and reorganized the leadership.
AI-generated summary
The United States and Iran were implementing a memorandum of understanding ending the war last July, but the agreement was put in jeopardy when the Iranian military attacked three merchant ships, including a Qatari LNG carrier, in the Strait of Hormuz. The attack was the result of arbitrary actions by field commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, which led to the explosion of conflict between hardliners and pragmatic factions within the Iranian leadership.
(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Kang Hoon-sang = The New York Times (NYT) reported that last July, when the memorandum of understanding ending the war between the United States and Iran was being implemented, Iranian President Massoud Fezeshikian was very angry with the Iranian military for attacking a civilian ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Five Iranian officials and two Revolutionary Guard members familiar with the situation at the time told this newspaper that President Fezeshkian called Ahmad Vahidi, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, after hearing that Iranian forces had attacked three merchant ships, including a Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) ship, in the Strait of Hormuz.
It is said that President Pejesikian shouted in this phone call, reprimanding the act for being reckless and demanding an investigation. In response, Commander-in-Chief Vahidi explained that he neither approved the attack on the merchant ship nor knew about it in advance. Iranian officials added that the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), which oversees security policy, had no knowledge of the attack.
It is said that the military organization that judges and carries out military operations in the field did not follow the orders of the Iranian leadership.
On July 8, the day after the attack on the merchant ship, the United States resumed attacks on Iran, effectively abolishing the previous memorandum of understanding.
Iranian officials later described the "most violent" political clash in Iran's leadership as having erupted in the country's history. There were shouts among the leadership, two generals pressured to resign, and the SNSC was reorganized, with Mohsen Rezai, the former longest-serving commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guard, appointed as secretary-general.
President Fezeshkian questioned who made the decision to attack the merchant ship in question, and was told that the commanders on the scene acted arbitrarily following instructions to attack all ships violating the control of the Strait of Hormuz without waiting for approval from the leadership, related sources said.
At the time, the Iranian government claimed to the outside world that it was because these merchant ships were traveling illegal routes, but it explained its "arbitrary action" to the United States and Middle Eastern countries, U.S. officials told the NYT.
NYT commented, "Most of Iran's leadership was completely unaware that an extreme hardliner faction had taken action on its own," and added, "The hardliners' secret operation thwarted the efforts of Iran's pragmatic moderates to end hostilities with the United States and restore the collapsed economy."
He added, “The division (between pragmatic moderates and extreme hardliners) continues, and the hardliners’ position has become more solidified.”
According to NYT, three Iranian officials pointed to Hossein Taeb, who opposed negotiations with the United States and consistently persuaded Ayatollah Khamenei, as the mastermind behind the attack on a merchant ship in July. Ayatollah Khamenei appointed him, who served as the head of the Revolutionary Guard's intelligence department for more than 20 years, as commander-in-chief of the Basiz militia last month.
At the same time, he pointed out that this division and the rise of extreme hardliners were due to the fact that the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, had not made a single appearance since taking office in March.
For security reasons, he did not attend his father's funeral in early July, and as he has not revealed his actual appearance or even his real name for six months, doubts are growing about his life or death.
Iranian cleric Alireza Firuzmand said on state television in late July, "It may be necessary for security reasons, but how long should this last? If we do not see a leader, we will remain in permanent vulnerability and decline."
His few written statements actually became the basis for attacks on the pragmatic faction.
After signing the memorandum of understanding ending the war in June, he criticized, saying, "I agreed (to the memorandum of understanding) because the President and SNSC approved it, but 'in principle' we have different opinions."
NYT quoted Iranian officials as saying that over the past few weeks, when the level of military conflict with the United States has escalated, Iran's leadership and military have argued over ways to return to negotiations and increase international oil prices by strengthening military attacks.
Military hardliners, including Revolutionary Guard Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi, are said to have pushed for intensified military confrontation and presented a detailed war plan, including strengthening attacks on energy infrastructure in the region using the 'axis of resistance' such as Yemeni rebels and Iraqi Shia militias.
However, President Fezeshkyan and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who headed the negotiation team, warned that this war plan could lead to US airstrikes and fatal economic pressure, the NYT reported.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
It is highly likely that Iranian hardliners will carry out additional military provocations.
Likely · Within weeks
Diplomatic tensions between the US and Iran will resume, making it difficult to resume negotiations.
Very likely · Within months
The resignation or weakening of influence of pragmatic leaders within Iran will continue.
Likely · Within weeks

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