US President Donald Trump acknowledged that the war with Iran cost Republicans a heavy price in the US midterm elections. Now, he must decide whether he will limit his losses and seek to reach an agreement, or whether he will continue escalation and return to bombing and confronting Iran.
The Democrats seized control of the US Congress in the midterm elections, in a severe defeat for the Republicans that would place various obstacles before Trump in the last two years of his presidential term.
The Democrats were able to tighten their control over the Senate and the House of Representatives, after voters in a number of conservative strongholds turned their backs on the Republican Party, to which Trump belongs. This shift reached the state of Texas, which turned blue, the symbol of the Democratic Party, after decades of Republican dominance.
Trump had stated, for weeks, that he would end the war with Iran one way or another after the elections. In this context, one of his former advisors told Axios: “Losing the midterm elections is one thing, but Trump does not want to appear to have lost twice.” This has left even his closest aides uncertain about his next move.
Why is this important? All of the options available to Trump involve problems, according to a report by the Axios news site.
The first option is to launch military strikes; But a return to war would be a very unpopular move, as it would keep fuel prices high and would likely not produce better military results.
The second option is negotiation; But if Iranian officials refuse to make concessions - or if they sense weakness in the US administration following the president's political defeat and decide to raise the ceiling of their demands - Trump will face extreme difficulty in reaching an agreement.
The third option is to “suffocate” the Iranian regime, as Trump’s aides describe it. This means maintaining the status quo - the continuation of the naval blockade and harsh economic sanctions that leave the Iranian regime “eroding” from within - while continuing to test its willingness to reach an agreement. However, this path may take months before any signs of progress appear.
An interesting point: In a striking statement on Wednesday morning, Vice President Vance held the war directly responsible for the Republican Party's severe defeat in the midterm elections, adding a new political dimension to Trump's calculations.
Vance wrote on the “X” platform: “The reason we lost is because of the war.” The president himself confirmed this last night. “If you want to argue that it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next six years was an acceptable price, do so... But everyone understands why we lost, and any honest discussion about our future path must start from there.” Vance also pointed out that the United States' relationship with Israel constituted a great burden on Republicans.
For his part, Trump told reporters yesterday that Vance's analysis is "largely correct," given that the war caused fuel prices to rise. But Trump said he would repeat that if necessary, adding: “We had no choice.” Iran cannot be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon.” In response to a question about when he would end the war, Trump replied: “Any time I want.” “But it has to be done right, because they cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.”
Behind the scenes of recent months: In recent months, Vance led a movement within Trump's inner circle, urging him to reach an agreement with Iran to end the war. Sources reported that Vance, in private conversations, accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of being “wrong about everything” regarding Iran.
What happens now? American officials say that the US military is finalizing its preparations for the possible resumption of large-scale combat operations in Iran, including sending more military reinforcements to the region. At the same time, the mediators are working to garner support from both the United States and Iran for a draft agreement aimed at preventing a return to fighting, and perhaps resuming direct talks in the coming days, according to regional sources.
“No war, no agreement”: Iranian officials celebrated Trump’s electoral defeat, considering it evidence that they were winning the war. Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, wrote on the “X” platform: “The Iranian people have inflicted a strategic defeat on Trump on the battlefield and in the Strait of Hormuz, and a political defeat in Washington. At the same time, the Americans found themselves forced to bear the costs of his war.”
