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Back《求是》文章指出中国经济微观主体预期信心变化,部分领域活力减弱
《求是》文章指出中国经济微观主体预期信心变化,部分领域活力减弱
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自由时报1 hour agoPolitics2 min readChinaView translation

《求是》文章指出中国经济微观主体预期信心变化,部分领域活力减弱

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中共党刊《求是》最新文章指出中国经济处于新旧动能转换关键时期,部分微观主体预期、信心和行为选择发生变化,企业倾向持币观望不敢扩大投资和增加用工,劳动者求稳避险不敢转换赛道或创业,导致资源要素流动放缓,经济增长压力加大。文章同时回应社会对全面从严治党影响经济的质疑,认为此类认识源于对党建与经济社会发展关系的偏差。

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Why It Matters

文章指出中国经济正处于新旧动能加快转换和发展方式转变的关键时期,供强需弱、内需不足问题突出,消费和投资增速下行压力较大,部分行业企业生产经营困难出现分化。

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中共黨刊「求是」最新一期文章再談中國經濟,坦言「一些微觀主體的預期、信心和行為選擇正在發生變化,部分領域活力有所減弱」,並指企業「傾向於持幣觀望,不敢擴大投資、不敢增加用工」。

1日出版的「求是」刊發「在激發社會活力中增強高質量發展動力」一文,署名「『求是』雜誌評論員」。這篇文章以7月30日召開的中共中央政治局會議開頭,該會議強調要「增強發展動力、激發社會活力」。

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文章說,中國經濟正處在新舊動能加快轉換和發展方式轉變的關鍵時期,經濟運行面臨著一些困難挑戰。供強需弱、內需不足的問題仍然突出,消費、投資增速下行壓力較大,一些行業企業生產經營遇到困難、出現分化。

文章指出,這反映出一些微觀主體的預期、信心和行為選擇正在發生變化,部分領域活力有所減弱。在國內外複雜因素的疊加影響下,有的企業傾向於持幣觀望,不敢擴大投資、不敢增加用工,有的勞動者傾向於求穩避險,不敢輕易轉換賽道、不敢冒險創業,從而導致資源要素流動放緩,經濟增長壓力加大。

文章還表示,中國的醫療、養老、托育等公共服務供給與民眾期待還有差距,有的家庭生活成本和風險加大,也在一定程度上影響著消費投資、做事創業的能力和意願。

今年8月,「求是」雜誌發表了題為「如何看待宏觀數據與微觀感受『溫差』」的文章,顯示中國官方承認經濟存在反差。

儘管承認當前中國經濟的諸多問題,但求是網6日發出評論員文章「管黨治黨會影響經濟社會發展嗎?」反駁社會上對於全面從嚴治黨打擊經濟活力的質疑。「全面從嚴治黨」由中共總書記習近平提出。預定10月召開的中共五中全會,主要議程即研究「推進全面從嚴治黨若干重大問題」。

求是網這篇評論說,有人認為,「全面從嚴治黨管得太緊,抓吃喝過了頭,反腐敗用力過猛,影響經濟社會發展」;有人認為,「管黨治黨抓得太嚴,束縛了黨員、幹部的手腳,影響了幹事創業積極性」。產生這些「錯誤認識」,是因為對管黨治黨與經濟社會發展關係的認識有偏差。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 中共五中全会将研究推进全面从严治党的若干重大问题,可能提出平衡党建与经济发展的政策措施。

    Likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 具体有哪些政策措施被提出来提振市场主体信心?
  • 全面从严治党在促进经济发展方面将采取哪些平衡措施?
  • 公共服务领域特别是医疗、养老和托育方面的短fall将如何弥补?

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