Warning of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold by 2030, with opportunities still present for action

This threshold will be crossed by 2030.

The Earth's temperature is currently about 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The consequences of this are visible in many regions, where drought threatens agricultural crops, forest fires increase in southern Europe, glaciers are melting at an accelerated pace, while the ocean records new temperature records. In addition, the El Nino phenomenon is a natural phenomenon that temporarily raises temperatures and exacerbates these risks.

The greatest danger is the emergence of points of no return, including the melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, the disturbance of the Atlantic Ocean currents, and the transformation of the Amazon forests from the “lungs of the planet” into a source of carbon. These processes may be irreversible. Pacific island nations are particularly vulnerable.

But opportunities still exist. In the event of a rapid abandonment of fossil fuels, the temperature could reach, according to expert estimates, a peak of about 1.8 degrees Celsius, before it begins to decline. To achieve this, we need to reduce emissions, restore ecosystems, and develop technologies to capture carbon dioxide from the air.

This would require not only reducing emissions to zero by 2050, but also extracting one gigaton of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The proposed methods include natural means, such as planting forests and restoring nature, and technological ones, such as weathering rocks and alkalinizing the oceans.

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Progress is there, but radical steps are needed

The Paris Agreement has achieved some results. Whereas the world was previously heading towards a temperature rise of 3.6 degrees Celsius by 2100, the current trajectory indicates a rise of about 2.6 degrees Celsius. Recent years have witnessed a huge boom in the field of solar energy and electric transportation. While it took 70 years to install the first terawatt of solar capacity, the third terawatt was installed in just two years.

However, global emissions have so far reached a plateau, but have not yet begun to decline. The climate crisis requires collective and immediate action.