Is the U.S. nuclear umbrella still reliable? France joins 10 countries to expand nuclear deterrence against Russia

The French Air Force's Tornado fighter jets can carry ASMP-A nuclear cruise missiles and are an important part of France's airborne nuclear deterrence force. (Picture taken from French Ministry of Defense)

France is expanding nuclear deterrence cooperation with its European allies as European confidence in U.S. security commitments falters. The "Forward Nuclear Deterrence" plan proposed by French President Macron considers deploying "Straw" fighter jets with nuclear strike capabilities in Europe and establishing new communication, early warning and intelligence sharing mechanisms, which will increase the strategic uncertainty faced by Russia.

The Wall Street Journal reported on the 25th that since Macron announced the plan in March, 10 European countries have participated to varying degrees, including the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland and Nordic countries. French strategic affairs adviser Chatel said that this arrangement will give France more options to deploy nuclear weapons when a nuclear conflict escalates. Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide stressed that the French plan was to supplement the existing US nuclear umbrella, not replace it.

France holds the power to make nuclear weapons decisions, but the three Baltic states did not participate

Macron said that France's "core interests" are not limited to its own territory, but also have European significance. France will resume manufacturing nuclear devices and will no longer disclose the size of its nuclear weapons inventory. France is currently estimated to have about 290 nuclear warheads, but Paris has not clearly defined the geographical scope of its core interests, nor has it provided clear nuclear protection commitments to its allies.

The 10 countries currently participating in the initiative include the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Greece, Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark. The three Baltic countries closest to Russia are not included, and Italy has not joined. Finnish President Stuab said that Finland has no plans to deploy nuclear weapons on its homeland in peacetime, but believes that participating in the initiative will help grasp information and create strategic problems for Russia.

There are also differences in the nuclear deterrence structures of France and the United States. The United States deploys B-61 gravity nuclear bombs in Europe, and their use requires the consent of both the United States and relevant allies; France maintains its independent decision-making power on nuclear weapons. The ASMP-A nuclear cruise missiles carried by the "Strength" fighter jets have the ability to strike major Russian cities. Analysts interviewed believe that this makes France's approach to deterring Russia with nuclear weapons different from the United States' nuclear sharing arrangement.

There are still political variables to this collaboration. France deliberately retains complete decision-making power on nuclear weapons in order to win support from different political positions in the country, including the far-right National Rally. Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the French Foundation for Strategic Studies and a nuclear policy expert, warned that if the far-right leader of the "National Alliance" Marine... With Marine Le Pen in power in the future, France's credibility in deterring Russia and appeasing its European allies may be questioned.

Vipin Narang, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who served as the Pentagon's nuclear policy director in the Biden administration, said that the French initiative should not be seen as an alternative to the United States' extended deterrence, but France has made progress in relevant cooperation.