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Back台南市議員第10選區選情分析:藍大於綠艱困選區,7人搶5席
台南市議員第10選區選情分析:藍大於綠艱困選區,7人搶5席
Politics
自由时报42 minutes agoPolitics2 min readChina

台南市議員第10選區選情分析:藍大於綠艱困選區,7人搶5席

下屆台南市議員第10選區應選5席,民進黨改採低額提名盼突破,泛藍陣營實力雄厚,無黨籍現任與新人參戰讓選情升溫。

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下屆台南市議員第10選區東區應選5席共7人登記。民進黨改採低額提名蔡筱薇、陳金鐘力求突破藍大於綠選區;泛藍陣營有曾培雅、曾之婕、王家貞爭取連任或交棒,無黨籍李宗霖力求連任,藥師陳進男也參戰。

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Why It Matters

台南市議員第10選區向來藍大於綠,本屆泛藍取得3席、泛綠2席。

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下屆台南市議員第10選區(東區)應選5席,有7人登記參選。屬於文教區的東區政治版圖一向藍大於綠,是綠營較「艱困」的選區,民進黨此次改採低額提名蔡筱薇、陳金鐘兩人,想與泛藍的曾培雅、曾之婕、王家貞爭納5席名單;而在本屆吊車尾上壘的無黨李宗霖,備感連任壓力,文宣看板都打出「夾縫中求生存」的哀兵訴求。

本屆東區市議員選戰,民進黨高額提名蔡筱薇、陳金鐘、蔡旺詮3人,最終僅保蔡筱薇1席;泛藍拿下過半的3席,包括國民黨曾培雅、無黨曾之婕(曾培雅是曾之婕的姑媽)、國民黨王家貞3人;原屬基進黨的李宗霖搶到第5席,他後來選擇退黨、改以無黨尋求連任。

東區現任市議員有國民黨曾培雅、無黨曾之婕、國民黨王家貞與民進黨蔡筱薇、無黨李宗霖5席,選民結構長期呈現「藍大於綠」,本屆泛藍3席、泛綠2席。民進黨記取本屆高額提名、票源分散的前車之鑑,初選民調改採低額提名蔡筱薇與捲土重來的陳金鐘兩人。

在民進黨東區市議員初選落敗的蔡旺詮(立委陳亭妃子弟兵)、卓佩于(立委王定宇助理)也獲陳亭妃延攬加入團隊;陳金鐘此次靠向陳亭妃推出「陳陳聯手」聯合競選,民進黨派系能否成功整合,是奪回第2席的關鍵。

國民黨老將曾培雅基層組織穩固,下屆選擇交棒兒子歐政豪,若票源穩定傳承,二代可望接棒;曾之婕家族在東區地方實力雄厚,她接力父親、胞弟在本屆參選,就拿東區第二高票,連任機會高。

國民黨資深市議員王家貞本屆位列泛藍第三,有藍軍相當支持力量,泛綠的陳金鐘、李宗霖若都想出線,王家貞是他們的頭號勁敵。藥師陳進男再以無黨披掛加入東區議員戰局,爭取出線仍有一段路要走。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 7人爭奪東區5席市議員

    Very likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 民進黨派系整合能否成功奪下第2席?
  • 泛藍二代交棒能否順利傳承?

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