The war in Yemen threatens two strategic sea lanes and increases tension between Iran and the United States

Nearly seven months after the outbreak of war, the conflict has expanded to include two strategically important sea lanes. In addition to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas consumption is transported, there is now a second central energy trade corridor under pressure: the Red Sea. The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have expanded their attacks on Saudi Arabia, increasingly targeting energy infrastructure and export routes through the Red Sea.

According to the New York Times, last Sunday (September 20, 2026), Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called US President Donald Trump to once again strongly ask him to intervene to stop the group’s rapid advance.

Trump is said to have temporarily considered launching air strikes on the Houthis but backed away from those plans. Fox News reported on Sunday that Trump stated that the Houthis had pledged not to attack any American targets. The American news site Axios also reported that Trump had already rejected a Saudi request to launch raids on the Houthis last week.

Between military and diplomatic operations

In light of the rise in gasoline and diesel prices and the internal political situation ahead of the midterm elections on November 3, US President Donald Trump is trying to achieve his declared goals in the war with Iran.

"President Trump wants to end the war with Iran from a position that allows him to claim that he has significantly weakened Iran's nuclear and military capabilities, restored freedom of maritime navigation and forced Tehran to return to the negotiating table," says Iranian affairs expert Fatima Aman in response to a question from DW. But Aman, who has worked, inter alia, with the Middle East Institute, the Atlantic Council, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and Voice of America, stresses that it has been difficult so far to define a clear strategy to achieve this goal.

There is still a wide gap between military pressure and a political solution. The United States has imposed heavy military and economic costs on Iran and appears to have made progress in weakening the country's military capabilities. But it has not yet been able to achieve Tehran's surrender nor reach a permanent agreement.

At the same time, Trump expressed his willingness to meet with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who went to New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly. Prominent representatives from Gulf countries are also expected to arrive in the United States in the coming days. According to the American website Axios, Trump intends to consult with representatives of several Gulf countries regarding the war with Iran on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

The Gulf countries do not want further escalation

No common position has yet been crystallized between Iran and its Arab neighbors in the Gulf. A scheduled meeting between Iran, the Gulf states and Iraq was canceled last week. This cancellation may be related to the recent attacks launched by the Houthis on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

"At first glance, it seems that there are almost no commonalities between Iran and the Gulf states," says Farzan Sabet, an expert on Middle East affairs at the Geneva Institute of Graduate Studies, in response to a question from DW. “But behind the scenes there is at least a common interest in preventing any further military escalation.”

The Gulf states have realized that they will not be able to win in a direct military confrontation with Iran. Therefore, it relies mainly on reducing tension and relieving tension practically in its relations with Tehran. But there does not appear to be an agreement in sight at the moment. In particular, the Gulf states believe that Iran's demands to impose tighter control over the Strait of Hormuz go too far.

What makes the matter more complicated is that the war in Yemen limits the margin of maneuver for rapprochement. For example, it is difficult for Saudi Arabia to be willing to make concessions as long as the country is at the same time under pressure from attacks by the Houthis allied with Iran.

Relying on a two-track strategy

Aman says that a permanently hostile Gulf coalition supported by the United States would be strategically costly for Tehran. Therefore, Iran may pursue a two-track strategy: resisting the containment structure led by Washington while at the same time presenting an alternative model for regional security to the Gulf states based on balance and dialogue. In the end, the Gulf states are not just Iran's competitors, but also its neighbors, and no party can change this geographical fact.

According to Iranian security official Mohsen Raisai, Tehran is demanding that the United States stop fighting on all fronts. Iran also demands the release of frozen Iranian assets and the lifting of the naval blockade. Accordingly, talks with Qatar and Oman will continue. Tehran is now awaiting a response from Trump.

It remains uncertain whether these diplomatic channels are able to end the war. Washington, Tehran, and the Gulf states are still pursuing different goals.

Prepared in Arabic by: M.A.M