Intelligence reports: Iran is escalating its attacks and betting on exhausting Washington's patience before the elections

Iran has become bolder in attacking targets in the Middle East, and seems determined to prolong the conflict with the United States for months, according to American intelligence reports issued in recent weeks.

In many respects, these estimates reflect what was observed on the ground as fighting broke out again after a period of relative calm. During the past week, Iran targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz and American forces in the region, while American forces launched strikes inside Iran, resulting in the killing of military personnel and civilians.

New exchange rounds have remained limited so far. But intelligence reports, according to people who have seen them, indicate that the hardline Iranian government may be considering a major escalation.

Iran has emerged from months of intermittent war with a much better understanding of its military strengths and greater confidence in its capabilities, according to officials briefed on the intelligence.

Some current and former officials said reports indicate the difficulty of reaching any agreement to completely end the war. There are few indications that Iran is ready to reach any kind of agreement with the United States, while it appears comfortable exacerbating President Donald Trump's political troubles before the US midterm elections, according to some officials.

Trump is not currently seeking negotiations, and said he believes he can put economic pressure on Iran that forces Tehran to make concessions on its control of the strait, and perhaps eventually on its nuclear program.

But officials who have seen the intelligence reports said that, in the short term, US economic sanctions were likely to continue to provoke further escalation.

Bet on attrition

According to American officials, Iran may take measures similar to what it did in July in the coming weeks. At that time, it attacked American military bases in the Middle East, killing three Americans in Jordan, targeting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and striking infrastructure in Kuwait and elsewhere.

US officials also believe that hackers linked to Iran were likely responsible for cyber attacks that targeted more than 100 water systems across the United States in late July.

Although there were no indications that any of these systems had been damaged that rendered the water unfit for drinking, in some cases the attacks led to disturbances that required resorting to manual operation and issuing precautionary boil-water alerts.

Current and former officials said hackers have also shown interest in attacking US oil and gas infrastructure, although those systems are generally considered more difficult to penetrate. It is not clear whether any of the power systems were compromised.

There are indications, according to American officials, that pirates linked to Iran may have reorganized their ranks in recent months after suffering some losses at the beginning of the war.

Even in the absence of serious unrest, cyber attacks are likely to remain an attractive way for Iran as it seeks to undermine public support within the United States for an already unpopular war, former intelligence officials and security experts said.

Alex Orleans, a former cybersecurity contractor for the US government who specializes in tracking Iranian hacking groups, said Iranian cyber attackers likely feel more emboldened.

He added: “Even if such attacks fail to shake American public opinion in a tangible way, they may still be part of a broader effort to exhaust internal patience with the way this administration is dealing with the conflict.”

During a press briefing Thursday, Vice President J.D. Vance appeared to acknowledge that such attacks could further erode support for a conflict with no clear end in sight.

Vance sought to downplay the threat facing Americans, but said that the Trump administration expects Tehran to continue “trying to do a lot of things” to target the United States.

Vance said, in response to a journalist’s question about cyberattacks: “If you look at Iran’s ability to disrupt the normal lives of Americans, I think it is very limited. It is not zero, but it is very limited. “I would be much more concerned about cyberattacks from other parties.”

Longer game

Trump had expected a quick and decisive victory when American and Israeli forces began the war on February 28. After waves of harsh attacks, the president's critics say it has become painfully clear that the Trump administration has underestimated Iran's resilience.

“The Iranians feel very confident in their position,” said Colorado Democratic Representative Jason Crow, a member of the Intelligence Committee. They had suffered great damage, but the ability to withstand such damage had always been calculated within their system. “They realize they can take losses, and they are playing a much longer game here.”

Crowe declined to comment on the confidential estimates, but said that the Iranians believe they are in a stronger position for several reasons.

He said that Iran's leadership, which was previously divided, was now more united, and that internal opposition had been silenced. Iran also still maintains a stockpile of missiles and drones.

It also appears that the Iranian leadership has a more precise understanding of how to impose control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil passed before the war.

“They have always known that the Strait is a great bargaining chip, but they are now more aware of the influence it gives them,” Crowe said.

Others briefed on the reports said Iran likely believes the US military will have great difficulty launching large-scale new strikes as its stockpiles of ammunition dwindle.

Undermining Trump's electoral position

There are also indications that Iran is determined to prolong the conflict until at least the midterm elections, according to current and former officials.

According to the officials, Iran realizes that the war — and the rise in gasoline prices caused by the closure of the strait — is causing political damage to Trump and the Republican Party.

New Jersey Democratic Representative Josh Gottheimer said: “The Iranians believe they have the maximum amount of leverage.” Therefore, from their point of view, why do they not continue to pressure the president?”

There are indications that Iran is seeking to spread propaganda that would undermine Trump's electoral position, as it did during the presidential elections in 2020 and 2024.

Last week, Meta published a report that highlighted a small network of accounts on Facebook and Instagram originating from Iran and focusing on American politics.

Meta said the network's content, some of which was produced using artificial intelligence, included "anti-Republican positions."

Alethea, a company specializing in threat intelligence, said that during the past two weeks, local media in Iran published more than 1,200 articles in the Persian language referring to Trump and the midterm elections.

Alethea added that the dominant framework in these materials was that the war had become a political burden on Trump.

Gottheimer, another member of the Intelligence Committee who declined to discuss classified reports, said he initially supported the war. But he said that the Trump administration did not have a clear strategy, and that Iran was able to overcome the effects of the attacks.

He added: “Because the Iranian government does not care much about the suffering of its people, it has been able to withstand harsh economic sanctions and military bombing alike.”

On Friday, US President Donald Trump threatened to strike the heavily fortified “Jabal Ax” site near the Natanz nuclear facility, saying that the United States may target it “very soon” if it detects developments that raise its concerns.

The site is located near the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, which was severely damaged, and includes two complexes of tunnels buried at a great depth. Trump told reporters at the White House that US intelligence services are closely monitoring activity at the site.

“We may strike Jabal Ax very soon,” he added, adding: “If anything bad happens, we will strike them.” "We hit them hard."

Trump described the ongoing confrontation with Iran as a “military conflict” and not a major war for the United States, and defended Vice President J.D. Vance, who on Thursday refused to use the term “war” to describe the fighting with Tehran.

Trump said that the US strikes had become “intermittent,” adding: “Many do not call it a war.” I call it a military conflict because it is trivial to us. "It's not a big thing."

“Intermittent blows”

Vance said in a briefing at the White House on Thursday: “I will not call it a war.” “At the moment, there are no ongoing armed clashes,” he said, avoiding specifying whether the six-month-old standoff would end before the midterm elections on November 3.

Iran opened fire on Kuwait on Thursday, in response to rounds of US strikes targeting Iran earlier in the week, despite Vance’s talk about the absence of “ongoing armed clashes.”

The conflict cost American taxpayers more than $37.5 billion, and resulted in the deaths of 18 members of the American forces, according to a tally reported by the Associated Press.

Trump said that American losses remain much less than those incurred by the United States in previous wars, noting that since the outbreak of the war on February 28, Washington and Tel Aviv have relied on air strikes and have not deployed ground forces inside Iran.

Trump compared the war to the US military operation in Venezuela, which ended with the arrest of former President Nicolas Maduro and his transfer to New York, saying: “In Venezuela, we did not lose anyone. In this, we lost 18 people.”

He added: “In Vietnam, we lost 100,000 people. In other conflicts, we lost tens of thousands.”

US National Archives records show that 58,220 members of the US Armed Forces were killed during the Vietnam War.

When asked about describing the confrontation as a “trivial matter” despite the deaths of Americans, Trump stuck to his description, and said that the most important thing is that the United States achieved “a great success” and prevented Iran from possessing a nuclear weapon.

He added: “Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon, because if it had possessed one, it might not be standing here.”

Trump attacked his political opponents through his platform, “Truth Social,” and wrote that “the lunatics of the radical left, the Democrats, and the communists” would rather the United States “lose” the war with Iran than that the president achieve “victory for America.”

He added that these are “very sick people” suffering from what he called “Trump disorder syndrome,” using the expression he usually repeats when attacking his opponents.

Trump had written in another post this week that Iran had “officially become a failed state” and “dead,” claiming that it no longer had a naval or air force or a stable currency, and that it did not pay the salaries of its soldiers or police.

Naval blockade

Trump said that American forces destroyed Iranian radars, aircraft, and other military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, and repeated his claim that Washington now controls the strategic corridor and allows commercial ships to cross.

He also downplayed the future importance of the Strait to global energy supplies, pointing to work on new pipelines and land transport routes in the region that could reduce dependence on it.

He said: “There are many alternatives being created for the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is no longer what it was.

He referred to the development of pipelines to transport oil without passing through the strait, and talked about a land route through Syria that he said trucks were already using to transport crude.

He added: “If Iran does not become smart, very smart, it will end up with a Strait of Hormuz that is no longer largely necessary.”

Farzin Nadimi, a senior researcher at the Washington Institute, told Fox News that Tehran is increasingly relying on sea mines after repeated missile and drone attacks on commercial ships failed to achieve the effect it wanted.

Nadimi believed that Iran is changing its tactics in an attempt to disrupt shipping traffic and increase pressure on the United States and its regional partners.

Retired General Joseph Votel, former commander of the US Central Command (Centcom), said that the Iranian strategy is based on combining missiles, drones, and sea mines to expand the scope of the confrontation.

Votel added: “Their goal is to make it painful” for the United States and its partners in the region.

In a parallel context, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent said that, according to Washington, the tightened US blockade on Iran has begun to stifle its oil exports to China.

“Since the United States reimposed its blockade, no shipment of Iranian crude has successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz into China,” Besant wrote.

He added that the stocks “cannot be replaced” with the accumulation of crude oil on board ships stuck inside the strait, considering that “Iran’s export artery is being cut off.”

He continued: “Stuck oil, limited storage capabilities, and rapidly shrinking revenues.”

Besant's statements fall within the Trump administration's expansion of "Operation Economic Pariah," which combines sanctions with other economic measures targeting Iran's financing networks and revenue sources.

Oil revenues constitute one of Iran's primary foreign exchange channels, while the US administration is betting on a combination of military pressure, blockade, and financial sanctions to reduce the resources available to Tehran.

In recent days, Besant announced an additional tightening of financial sanctions on entities linked to Iran, and said that the United States and its allies are seeking to cut off the remaining financing channels used by Tehran.

The US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, said that Iran has become in a “very weak position” militarily and economically as a result of American pressure.

Israeli media quoted him as saying that Tehran may be trying to show that it is “fine,” but its military and economic conditions indicate the opposite.

He added that the measures taken by Trump “militarily and economically” pushed Iran into an “extremely difficult position,” warning of additional American pressure if Tehran continues to refuse to give up its nuclear ambitions and what he called its “regional aggression.”