With the start of the countdown to September 30th, the date set for the final US withdrawal from Iraq, the tripartite committee formed by the Shiite “coordinating framework” has not achieved a tangible breakthrough, so far, in terms of resolving the issue of weapons for the factions that refuse to hand over their equipment to the Iraqi government by the day of the US withdrawal. The government of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi calls September 30 “Sovereignty Day,” a date that was initially believed to mean the completion of the Americans’ withdrawal with the handing over of the factions’ weapons to government forces. However, the negotiations taking place between the “coordination framework” and the armed forces seem to have reached a dead end.
According to the latest position of the armed factions, expressed by the Al-Nujaba movement, as well as the statements made by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the leader of the Badr Organization, Hadi al-Amiri, there is no final or settled date for the process of handing over, inventorying, removing or freezing weapons located outside the framework of the state. Armed forces have previously announced their refusal to hand over their stocks, led by the Hezbollah Brigades and Al-Nujaba, stressing that they will not adhere to any dates for handing over weapons, as it is an ideological weapon and not limited to national borders.
The head of the political council of the Al-Nujaba movement, Ali Al-Asadi, announced that the movement adhered to its right not to infringe on what he called the “sanctity” of the resistance’s weapons in the face of regional dangers and threats, he said. Al-Asadi explained, in his blog post on the “X” platform, on Friday, that he completed a visit to the poles of the political process in the “coordination framework,” assuring them of the movement’s position regarding the importance of “preserving the existence of the (Popular) Mobilization Forces as a national body that cannot be touched,” as well as the necessity of preserving the “resistance” and “the sanctity of its weapons” in light of the “realistic and dangerous dangers and threats” that the country and the region are witnessing. Al-Asadi also stressed Al-Nujaba’s approach of not participating in the political process, indicating that “this approach is what keeps us with our people, living what they live, bearing their concerns, and striving to achieve their demands.” He stressed that “this trust remains our responsibility until we achieve comprehensive change that guarantees sovereignty, security and prosperity, free our economy from American hegemony” and stabilize the internal situation.
For its part, the Iraqi government believes, through the spokesman for the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Sabah al-Numan, that “there is no force in the world or regional circumstances capable of breaking a state whose people rally around its institutions with all its components and sects.” Al-Numan warned, in a briefing, of what he called “a flood of intimidation led by platforms funded with suspicious capital to market fear and exploit the emotions of Iraqis, coinciding with the approaching deadline of September 30.” Al-Numan added, “The military and security establishment, which stood in the darkest and harshest circumstances, and gave the most precious blood to protect this land, is fully aware of the magnitude of the challenges, and is working in the field around the clock, away from the clamor of bidding,” indicating that “the next stage requires wisdom, steadfastness, and solidarity.”
Regarding the issue of restricting weapons and what the armed factions want according to the announced dates for their delivery, the military and strategic expert, Mukhled Hazem, told Asharq Al-Awsat, “The political blocs that often make unbalanced statements do not give the true vision of what they are thinking in the dark rooms, as everyone knows that the options for them are limited, and these gains, spoils, prestige, and power may cause them to lose at any moment.” He continued, explaining that “everyone agrees that the issue of arms control must end, because the issue is no longer related to internal will only, but rather to external will, which is a trade-off between remaining in power or going into the unknown.”
Hazem added, “Some politicians come out with words in front of their audience for the purpose of cover only, while trying to provide some kind of favoritism to these factions, while it is a reality that was imposed not on Iraq (only) but also on Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, that weapons cannot remain outside the scope of the state, and the presence of armed groups cannot be considered to control the decision on war and peace.” He continued, "Everyone now no longer has many options in this regard (...) A decision has been decided on the issue of restricting weapons in a certain and final manner."
In addition, the tripartite committee formed by the “coordination framework” and including former prime ministers Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, Nouri al-Maliki, and the leader of the Badr Organization, Hadi al-Amiri, continues to conduct negotiations with the armed factions that refuse to hand over their weapons. However, recent statements made by both Al-Maliki and Al-Amiri raised questions among the political forces and the Iraqi street regarding the nature of the agreed-upon dates for restricting weapons to the state. Al-Maliki stressed, in his statements, that “there is no disarmament of the factions,” but rather a process of organizing it, without specifying a time frame for doing so, which, according to some sources, means transferring the process until after the American withdrawal. As for Al-Amiri, he went further when he confirmed, in a speech, the survival of the armed factions, revealing that they were the ones who protected the political system after confronting what he called “the October sedition,” in reference to the mass uprising that occurred in 2019 and which was suppressed with iron and fire.
In this context, the academic and political activist, Dr. Fares Haram, told Asharq Al-Awsat, “The first thing that is interesting about Al-Amiri’s statement is that it was consistent with the accusations made by a group of Western reports during the days of the October Movement that the armed factions in Iraq are responsible for killing the demonstrators. Some reports at the time mentioned by name some of the leaders involved in the liquidations, assassinations, and the unprovoked attack that was carried out on the youth of Tishreen in that uprising. Haram adds, “Such harmony comes to the mind of the Public Prosecutor in Iraq, and here I wonder: Where is the role of the Public Prosecutor in Iraq in monitoring such situations since 2003? Until now, the Public Prosecution Authority has not done its job in following up on operations that require judicial intervention. He continued, "An investigation should have been opened into these statements (about the role of the factions in suppressing the October Movement) based on the connection to the reports that the Iraqi government and the armed factions had denied at the time, and therefore we are facing a connection that must be kept in mind." He explained that “it must be understood from Al-Amiri what he intended in his statement, which means that the factions are responsible” for suppressing the protests, pointing out that this is also related to what was previously announced by the Prime Minister, at the time, Adel Abdul Mahdi, who said that whoever carried out those killings against the demonstrators was a “third party.” He added: “Unfortunately, we in Iraq have become accustomed to everything going uninvestigated as part of the process of impunity.”
