
民調專家戴立安公布新北市長選情最新民調,民進黨參選人蘇巧慧支持度43.1%,領先國民黨參選人李四川30.0%,雙方差距達13.1個百分點。媒體人李正皓提醒支持度需轉化為選票,強調投票重要性。
AI-generated summary
新北市長選舉是台灣重要的地方選舉之一,民進黨與國民黨為主要競爭勢力。戴立安民調為信民協會委託進行,畢肯市場研究公司負責執行電訪。
民調專家戴立安今(13日)公布新北市長選情最新民調,民進黨新北市長參選人蘇巧慧以43.1%支持度,領先國民黨參選人李四川的30.0%,雙方差距高達13.1個百分點。媒體人李正皓對此也提醒,相信大家都很振奮,但這些支持度沒有換成選票,那就永遠是數字。
李正皓表示,台中市長參選人何欣純追到不到2個百分點,蘇巧慧徹底拉開差距,沈伯洋方面,相信月底的戴立安民調也會有大驚喜,包含他在內的大家都很振奮。
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不過他也要提醒:「如果這些支持度沒有換成選票,那就永遠是數字,1128要去投票,還要幫忙拉票,剩下的開完票再說。」
許多網友也紛紛留言贊同:「去投票才是最重要的,數字都是假的!」、「洋流的外溢效應、正在蔓延中……」、「票票入匭,沉穩向前。」、「一定要出門投票才算數!」、「可見跟單厚之忘記關麥的説法,完全不謀而合,不過最終票還是要投進票匭、才能算數……」
本項民調由信民協會委託戴立安先生負責問卷設計與分析、畢肯市場研究公司執行電訪,從10月6日至10月8日,調查對象為設籍於新北市且年滿20歲之民眾,成功完訪1073人(住宅電話750人、行動電話323人),合併樣本在信賴水準95%時的抽樣誤差最大值為±3.0%。
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
蘇巧慧在選舉中獲勝的機會較大
Likely · Within weeks
選舉日投票率將成為關鍵因素
Likely · Within days

During the New Taipei City mayoral election, Su Qiaohui said in response to Zhang Shujuan's accusation of Zhou Yukou's own revelations that she was also under attack on that day's program. The so-called "straight-ball showdown" only refers to her own position. She could not comment on Zhang's case and did not want to comment. She also emphasized that elections should focus on policies rather than private areas. People never know what kind of unbearable pain a single sentence may cause.

A New Taipei mayoral election poll conducted by the People's Association from October 6 to 8 showed that DPP candidate Su Qiaohui's support reached 43.1%, leading KMT candidate Li Sichuan's 30.0%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. In an interview, Su Qiaohui said that although she was pleasantly surprised, she needed to be cautious of fear, and emphasized that the two-North elections may have a linkage effect, but New Taipei must maintain its subjectivity. The poll samples are people registered in New Taipei City over the age of 20, with a valid sample of 1,073 people and an error of ±3.0%.

Polling expert Dai Li'an pointed out that some blue-leaning media polls showed that Li Sichuan of the Kuomintang was ahead of Su Qiaohui of the DPP by 6.7 percentage points, but this was actually caused by the incorrect use of 2018 "Korean Wave" data weighting. His latest poll showed that Su Qiaohui's support was 43.1%, Li Sichuan was 30.0%, and Su Qiaohui was ahead by 13.1 percentage points. He suggested that predictions should be made based on the results of the 2024 regional legislative election rather than outdated data.

FTV's 8 o'clock drama "Tofu Mom" originally wanted to invite Taipei mayoral candidate Shen Boyang of the Democratic Progressive Party to make a guest appearance, but it caused a backlash from media people and was deemed by the Ministry of Labor to have violated the Occupational Safety Law. Shen Boyang said that the reason he did not participate in the performance was that his schedule was full and he could not cooperate. He also emphasized that the safety and care of the staff are very important, and relevant legislation and industry discussions must continue.

The Taichung City Council held the third reading of the 2027 municipal general budget today. City Councilor Chen Yurong of the Democratic Progressive Party proposed a temporary motion, requesting the Taichung City Government to study the feasibility of universal cash at the end of the year as soon as possible before leaving office, and to take stock of tax revenue and financial resources to give the citizens clear answers. Speaker Zhang Qingzhao said that the case had been reviewed at the previous meeting and sent to the municipal government for discussion and handling.

Polling expert Dai Lian announced the latest poll. The proportion of New Taipei City people who believe that DPP candidate Su Qiaohui is suitable to serve as mayor reached 48.6%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from August. The suitability of KMT candidate Li Sichuan was 35.9%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points. In terms of support, Su Qiaohui leads Li Sichuan by 13.1 percentage points, reaching 43.1% to 30.0%.