Typhoon Qiangbi will form at 2 pm today (15th). The Central Meteorological Administration predicts that it is expected to strengthen into a moderate typhoon the day after tomorrow (Saturday), and then develop into a strong typhoon around next Monday. It will first move from the west to the northwest within 5 days, and then when it reaches the sea south of Ryukyu, it may turn north or move west. If the Pacific high pressure does not weaken significantly, it may be closer to Taiwan. The probability of turning north is currently high, and it still needs to be observed, but some coastal areas should be careful of long waves starting next Wednesday.
Zheng Jieren, a forecaster from the Meteorological Administration, explained that Typhoon Qiangbi was generated at 2 pm today and is currently about 4,200 kilometers away from Taiwan. It is expected to move from the west to northwest within 5 days, and will reach the southern sea of Ryukyu around next Tuesday, about 1,500 kilometers away from Taiwan. When it is 1, there is a chance of turning westward or northward, depending on the strength of the Pacific high pressure. The Pacific high pressure weakens significantly and the northward turn angle is larger. The Pacific high pressure weakens less significantly and may move westward. It is currently estimated that the probability of turning northward is relatively high, and continued observation is required.
Zheng Jieren said that the sea water temperature in the sea areas where Qiangpi will travel in the future is relatively high, and it is expected to strengthen to a medium-level Taiwan the day after tomorrow, and may even develop into a "strong Taiwan" level around next Monday. As for whether it will have a companion effect with the northeast monsoon, he explained that the companion effect mainly occurs when the typhoon passes through the Bashi Strait or the Philippines when it passes through Taiwan. The current estimate is that the probability is not high and still needs to be observed. However, due to the influence of the typhoon, from next Wednesday, the north coast of Keelung, the eastern half, Green Island, Orchid Island, and Hengchun Peninsula should be careful of long waves.
As for the rainfall trend in the coming week, Zheng Jieren pointed out that before next Tuesday, it will be generally cloudy to sunny in various places. From tomorrow to early Saturday morning, there will be more moisture under the easterly wind environment. There will be short-lived showers on the north coast of Keelung, the eastern half, and the Hengchun Peninsula, and there will be scattered rain in the central and southern mountainous areas in the afternoon. From Saturday to next Tuesday, the weather will be more stable, with cloudy to clear everywhere. There will be sporadic short-lived rains on the north coast of Keelung, Yilan, Taitung, and Hengchun, and sporadic short-lived rains in the southern mountainous areas in the afternoon.
Zheng Jieren said that the northeast monsoon will strengthen next Wednesday and Thursday, and it will be cooler in the north and Yilan. The chance of rainfall will increase north of Taoyuan, Yihua and the Hengchun Peninsula. It will be cloudy to sunny south of Hsinchu, and there will be sporadic short-term rain in the central and southern mountainous areas in the afternoon.
As for the temperature, Zheng Jieren said that the temperature will not change much in the morning and evening in the coming week. Next Wednesday, it will generally be 22 to 24 degrees in various places. Next Thursday, the morning and evening in the north of central China will be 21 to 23 degrees. In other areas, it will be 24 to 26 degrees. In terms of high temperature, it will be generally warm in various places before next Tuesday. Keelung and Yilan will be 29 to 31 degrees during the day, and other areas will be around 31 to 34 degrees. Some areas, such as inland and basin areas, will have higher daytime temperatures. Pay attention to the large temperature difference between day and night in these days. Affected by the northeast monsoon next Wednesday and Thursday, the daytime temperature in the north of Taoyuan and Yilan will drop to 25 to 27 degrees, and in Zhumiao and Huadong 28 to 31 degrees. In the central and southern parts, there will be little impact, still maintaining 31 to 33 degrees.
