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BackLi Sichuan is behind Su Qiaohui by double digits. Scholar: Still can’t understand Li’s campaign strategy
Li Sichuan is behind Su Qiaohui by double digits. Scholar: Still can’t understand Li’s campaign strategy
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自由时报1 hour agoPolitics2 min readChinaView original

Li Sichuan is behind Su Qiaohui by double digits. Scholar: Still can’t understand Li’s campaign strategy

Mayor of New Taipei CitySu QiaohuiLi Sichuan

Quick Look

  • Polling expert Dai Lian released the latest poll on the New Taipei City mayoral election.
  • DPP candidate Su Qiaohui's support is 43.1%, leading KMT candidate Li Sichuan by 30.0%, with a gap of 13.1 percentage points.
  • Ye Yaoyuan, a professor at the University of St.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

The New Taipei City mayoral election is one of the important local elections in Taiwan, with the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang as the main competing forces. This poll was commissioned by the Faithful People's Association to design a questionnaire, and Beacon Market Research Company conducted telephone interviews. The sample was people registered in New Taipei City and over the age of 20. The number of valid samples was 1,073, with an error of ±3%.

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Polling expert Dai Lian released the latest poll on the New Taipei City mayoral election today (13th). Su Qiaohui, the New Taipei mayor candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party, has 43.1% support, leading the KMT candidate Li Sichuan with 30.0%. The gap between the two sides is as high as 13.1 percentage points. In this regard, Ye Yaoyuan, chair professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas in the United States, said frankly that he still cannot understand Li Sichuan's election strategy.

Today, Ye Yaoyuan forwarded a media report on the Facebook fan page "Professor Ye's School of International Affairs". The report mentioned that the gap between Su Qiaohui and Li Sichuan has reached double digits, which is an obvious golden cross with the results of the last survey. Ye Yaoyuan commented that it doesn't matter if the Kuomintang continues to say that the current is false. Anyway, as long as we lead more and more in the polls, "I don't care whether the current is true or false."

Please read on...

Ye Yaoyuan also questioned what Li Sichuan's campaign strategy was. He still can't understand it. In addition, it seems that many people like to mention the institutional effect of polls. Indeed, every poll will have some degree of bias. Ye Yaoyuan said with a smile: "But if the results of other polls in the future also show that Su Qiaohui is in the lead, then there is no need to worry about the institutional effect."

This poll was entrusted by the Trustees Association to Mr. Dai Li'an to be responsible for the questionnaire design and analysis, and Beacon Market Research Company conducted the telephone interview. From October 6 to October 8, the survey targets were people registered in New Taipei City and over the age of 20. 1,073 people were successfully interviewed (750 people on residential phones and 323 on mobile phones). The maximum sampling error of the combined sample at a reliability level of 95% was ±3.0%.

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • If subsequent polls continue to show that Su Qiaohui is in the lead, the impact of the polling agency effect will be weakened.

    Possible · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • What is Li Sichuan's specific election strategy?
  • Will follow-up polls continue to show Su Qiaohui leading?
  • To what extent do pollster effects affect the results?

Related Topics

Mayor of New Taipei City
PeopleDai LianSu QiaohuiLi SichuanYe Yaoyuan
OrganizationsDemocratic Progressive PartyKuomintangUniversity of St. Thomas, USAAssociation of believers
PlacesNew Taipei CityTaiwan
TopicsSu QiaohuiLi SichuanpollDai LianYe YaoyuanDemocratic Progressive Party
This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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