The popular "ocean current" in the election brings crowds. Communication scholar: Two thresholds are needed to flip Taipei

Can ocean currents topple Taipei? Du Shengcong, a communication scholar at Mingchuan University, said that we must first look at the threshold of voter turnout.

In the Taipei mayoral election, the most popular word in the past two months has been "ocean current." Du Shengcong, a communication scholar at Ming Chuan University, wrote in an article today that wherever Shen Boyang goes, night markets, markets, and parks are crowded; but after all, the election is not about who has more crowds, but who has more votes. How much are ocean currents worth? He also pointed out through analysis that the turnout threshold at the polling station on 1128 is an important key indicator. The ocean current is real, but its power may be overestimated; it can flip several precincts, but it is difficult to flip the entire Taipei alone.

Du Shengcong analyzed that if the current is meaningful, it will bring people who do not vote much and are more supportive of Shen Boyang into the voting booths. The effect of ocean currents is equal to "ocean current strength" multiplied by "turnout increase". No matter how large the crowds are, if the turnout on voting day does not really increase, the ocean current will just be lively; how strong does the ocean current need to be? Among the posts on the Internet that explicitly stated their stance, 65.6% supported Shen, while only 44.3% supported Chiang. Assuming that the preferences of new voters are like this group of most enthusiastic netizens, the turnout rate required for Jiang and Shen to tie is about 80%. However, the Taipei mayoral election has never exceeded 71% in the past 20 years. The last time it exceeded 80% was Chen Shui-bian versus Ma Ying-jeou in 1998.

In other words, when the turnout rate is between 65% and 70%, mobilization alone cannot turn the tables. What can really change the outcome is "persuasion": converting voters who originally supported Chiang. This election will still be won or lost by the judgment of the median voter, not just by the heat on the streets. The Taipei mayoral election had a high turnout of 80% in the 1990s, an era when the blue-green competition was fiercest and political parties were most mobilized. This year’s election has heated up, and it is not impossible for the turnout to return to 70%. But to go up again, we need a reason that makes most Taipei people feel “compulsory to vote.” Ocean currents do work to warm up supporters, but there is no evidence that they warm up apolitical people.

He analyzed that ocean currents are the most distinctive political phenomenon in the 2026 Taipei election, which has brought suspense back to an election that was originally considered one-sided. But the numbers also remind that for ocean currents to become a force that changes the outcome, two thresholds must be crossed at the same time: first, the turnout rate really increases, and second, to convince people who originally did not support Shen Boyang. The former decides the ownership of Shilin, Beitou and Datong, Zhongshan, and the latter decides who takes over the city government.