Analysts predict a sharp drop in Russian grain exports in the first quarter of the 2026/27 agricultural year

In the first quarter of the 2026/27 agricultural year, exports of the main types of Russian agricultural crops will fall sharply. Interfax reports this with reference to the forecast of analysts from the industry company ProZerno.

In July-September, experts expect, wheat shipments will decrease by approximately 2.2 times year on year - from 10.6 million to 4.8 million tons. As for other key types of agricultural crops, the export of corn, according to analysts, will fall by 200 thousand tons (from 0.8 million to 0.6 million), and barley - by almost 2.4 times (from 1.9 million to 0.8 million).

Market participants cite problems with grain export through the Azov-Black Sea basin as the main reason for this dynamics. Against the backdrop of increasing attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), a number of key transshipment facilities were stopped, primarily in Novorossiysk, pointed out the head of ProZerno, Vladimir Petrichenko.

This circumstance hit wheat exporters the hardest, he lamented. The latter encountered serious difficulties in shipping grain to Turkey. As a result, the Mediterranean country's share in the structure of Russian grain exports fell to 2 percent, although until July it was the second largest buyer.

Taking these circumstances into account, Petrichenko stated, the total volumes of Russian grain exports in July-September may decrease by 1.6 times compared to the same period in 2025.