The Bank of Russia allowed an increase in oil prices in 2026 due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz
Quick Look
- The Bank of Russia, in a summary of the key rate discussion, noted that oil prices exceeded the July forecast due to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.
- If the conflict drags on, the regulator does not rule out a further rise in prices in 2026.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Restrictions on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are related to the ongoing conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel. Previously, the sides exchanged blows despite attempts at a diplomatic settlement.
The trajectory of global oil prices in 2026 could be higher in the event of longer restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the Bank of Russia said in a summary of the discussion on the key rate.
"Oil prices were higher than the July forecast amid continued restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Participants noted that in the event of longer restrictions, the trajectory of oil prices for the remainder of 2026 could be higher than assumed in the baseline scenario," the document says.
On February 28, the United States and Israel began striking targets in Iran, to which the Iranian side responded with its own strikes. In mid-June, Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum to cease hostilities, but later exchanged blows again. At the moment, the conflict remains unresolved.
Open Questions
- How long will restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz last?
- Will additional measures be taken to ensure navigation safety?
