2026-27 El Nino Super Event Potential and Autumn Scenarios for Türkiye

The world's eyes are on El Nino, which is getting stronger in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The extraordinary increase in sea surface temperatures is considered as a harbinger of a process that may affect not only the Pacific environment, but also global temperatures and atmospheric circulation.

It is stated that this year's El Nino has not yet reached its peak, will continue to strengthen throughout the autumn months, and may reach extraordinary levels in December, when it typically reaches its strongest period. According to some estimates, the 2026-27 El Nino could be the strongest in the last 80-plus years of regular record keeping. One of the most important indicators that reveal the strength of El Nino is sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.

TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED TO EXTRAORDINARY LEVELS IN THE PACIFIC

El Nino is a large-scale climate event that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rise above the long-term average. El Nio's strength is tracked through 'Nino 3.4', a specific region in the Pacific that starts off the coast of South America and extends along the equator. Under normal circumstances, sea surface temperatures in this region are expected to decrease gradually during the northern hemisphere summer. However, in 2026, on the contrary, temperatures appear to continue to rise.

In the Niño 3.4 region in the second half of August, the sea surface temperature reached approximately 29.4 degrees. This value is extremely remarkable for the region. While it was stated that in the previously recorded El Nino years, temperatures in July and August did not stay above 29 degrees for a long time, this year's values ​​give an important signal about the strength of the event.

If sea surface temperatures rise approximately two degrees above the long-term average, the event is described as 'Super El Nino'. Current forecasts suggest that the 2026-27 El Nio could exceed this threshold and surpass past strong El Nino events. Especially compared to the strong El Niño events that started in 1997, 2015 and 2023, this year's development is expected to be much more remarkable.

EL NINO DOES NOT ONLY AFFECT THE PACIFIC

A large amount of heat accumulated in the near-surface waters in the Pacific is transferred to the atmosphere over time. This process can affect the general circulation of the atmosphere, causing temperature and precipitation patterns to change in different parts of the world. One of the most important effects of El Nino is seen on global temperatures.

The importance of El Nino for Türkiye is not limited to the increase in temperature. The real critical question is how changing atmospheric circulation may affect Turkey's precipitation regime. Let's take a closer look at this situation...

ATTENTION-ATCHING SCENARIO FOR Türkiye

Istanbul Aydin University Faculty Member, Meteorologist Dr. Güven Özdemir drew particular attention to October in his evaluation of next autumn. According to Özdemir, current long-term models indicate that precipitation may increase in the south and west of Europe, and temperatures may remain above seasonal norms in most of Europe.

'OCTOBER MAY BE THE MOST INTERESTING MONTH OF AUTUMN'

Özdemir used the following statements in his evaluation of October:

"October may be the most interesting month of autumn. The models are more striking here. In the August update of Copernicus, there is a signal that the autumn will be wetter in the south and west of Europe. At the same time, there is a high probability that temperatures will be above normal in most of Europe. The October forecast of the General Directorate of Meteorology (MGM) also predicts more than normal precipitation across Türkiye."

Özdemir pointed out that when these two forecasts are evaluated together, the weather scenario that may emerge for Türkiye may not be a "cool and rainy autumn" in the classical sense.

According to the expert's assessment, a warm, humid and occasionally very rainy weather pattern can be seen in Turkey:

"When we consider these two forecasts together, the possible scenario for Turkey is: Warm + humid + very rainy from time to time. In other words, the temperature will drop, but precipitation will begin. Instead of a classic 'cool and rainy autumn', this may be an autumn that fluctuates in the following: hot, very hot, sudden cooling, heavy rain and warm again."

WHAT WILL THE WEATHER BE IN ISTANBUL THIS WEEK?

"Weather conditions in Istanbul are not expected to follow the same character throughout the week between September 7-13. While cooler and relatively dry weather will be effective with northeasterly winds in the first part of the week, there will be a limited recovery in temperatures in the middle of the week," said Dr. Güven Özdemir said, "Towards the end of the week, the possibility of precipitation is expected to increase again with the change in the upper atmosphere." He shared the following details about the expected weather in the city day by day:

Monday, September 7: Istanbul will start the week with cooler weather. Temperatures are expected to be around 26-28 degrees. Northeast winds will blow strong from time to time. The weather is expected to be mostly clear and without rain. Especially the northeastern air flow coming over the Black Sea will cause temperatures to remain slightly below seasonal norms.

Tuesday, September 8: It will be one of the coolest days of the week. Temperatures are expected to remain around 24-26 degrees. Northeast winds will continue to affect. Although it is possible for humidity values ​​to increase especially at night and in the morning, there is no significant precipitation system.

Wednesday, September 9: The cool weather will largely continue. Temperatures will be around 25-27 degrees. The probability of precipitation seems low due to the continuing effect of high pressure in the atmosphere.

Thursday, September 10: Temperatures are expected to start rising again in Istanbul. Daytime temperatures can reach around 26-28 degrees. This rise will be linked to the re-strengthening of the ridge area in the upper atmosphere.

Friday, September 11: Will be one of the warmer days of the week. Temperatures are expected to rise to around 27-29 degrees. However, this does not mean a new and long-lasting heat wave. It is more of a temporary atmospheric recovery.

Saturday, September 12: Temperatures are expected to be around 26-28 degrees. Cloudiness may increase during the day. The beginning of a westward and northwestward change, especially in the upper levels of the atmosphere, may be a harbinger of Sunday's weather change.

Sunday, September 13: It may be the most remarkable day of the week. The upper level low pressure area that may approach over the Balkans and the Western Black Sea may increase the possibility of precipitation in Istanbul and Marmara. There may be a significant decrease in temperatures and daytime values ​​may drop to around 23-26 degrees.

WARM SEAS MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION

One of the most important elements of next autumn for Türkiye will be the temperature of the seas. High sea water temperatures, especially in the Mediterranean and Black Seas, may cause the atmosphere to be more supplied with moisture. Increased evaporation from the warm sea surface means more moisture is carried into the atmosphere. If the atmosphere begins to cool in autumn and colder air masses from the north reach Turkey in the same period, atmospheric instability may become stronger.

Dr. Güven Özdemir also drew particular attention to this point:

"The potential for precipitation may be high. Mediterranean and Black Sea sea water temperatures are very important here. The seas remained exceptionally warm throughout the summer. When the atmosphere begins to cool, the humidity given to the atmosphere from the warm seas increases."

Özdemir stated that the encounter between the moisture coming from the warm seas and the cold air mass advancing over the Balkans can create an important atmospheric environment for heavy rains and underlined the following information:

"For example, the Mediterranean temperature is high and evaporation is high. Therefore, humidity in the atmosphere increases and as cold air comes from the Balkans, ascent and convection become stronger. This may also increase the possibility of systems that can release large amounts of precipitation in a short time, especially in the autumn months."

THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWER MAY BE IMPORTANT THAN THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION

Just looking at the total amount of precipitation may not be enough for Türkiye next autumn. The main thing to pay attention to is how quickly and how intensely the rain will occur. Dr. Güven Özdemir also emphasized that the intensity of showers should be especially monitored in the October-November period:

"In the October-November period, the intensity of showers may be more important than the total precipitation. Here, the involvement of El Nino is also important. This is extremely important. Because the period when El Nino becomes the strongest exactly coincides with the October-November-December period."

ATTENTION TO THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER

While October stands out in the first part of autumn, especially the second half of November will be monitored more closely in terms of atmospheric conditions. However, according to experts, it is not possible to make an accurate weather forecast for November today.

Newsletters and Email Preferences

To be informed about the latest developments in Türkiye and the world, enter the e-mail address to which the newsletters will be sent.

Name

Surname

Email Address

Newsletter Selections

The Day Begins

End of Day

I give my consent within the scope of ETK Rules and Information Text.

While uncertainty in long-term forecasts decreases over time, when and where certain weather systems will occur can only be seen more clearly in short and medium-term forecasts. However, current climate and atmospheric indicators reveal that the second half of November may be remarkable.

Istanbul Aydin University Faculty Member, Meteorologist Dr. Güven Özdemir

Dr. Güven Özdemir said the following in his evaluation of this period: