Gartner positions physical AI and agent AI at the peak of 'excessive expectations' in 2026 Hype Cycle

Gartner has placed physical AI at the peak of "excessive expectations" in its 2026 edition. In the 2025 edition of the press release, physical AI was not mentioned in the nine newly added items or among the technologies that are at their peak.

Gartner says that physical AI will not only be the basis for introducing robot technology such as humanoids, but will also be the basis for rebuilding entire industries, including manufacturing, on a digital basis. Traditionally, workplaces were made up of human experience and separate equipment, but in the future the industry is expected to shift to an industrial structure that is designed around data, and AI makes decisions and controls in real time. The company believes that this transformation will proceed not only in the manufacturing industry but also in a wide range of industries including logistics, infrastructure, and construction.

Tadaaki Ega, Distinguished Vice President Analyst at Gartner, said, ``The important thing is not just automation, but expanding human skills and redesigning roles. People Only by incorporating a centric perspective will it be possible to increase productivity and added value at the same time while maintaining flexibility, creativity, and safety. Competitive advantage will be determined by ``the ability to redesign the entire business based on people and AI,'' and the gap between first-mover companies and latecomers will expand structurally.''

What is the current status of agent-based AI?

Gartner points out that agent-based AI, which is at its peak along with physical AI, is starting to have a major impact on the industrial structure. There is a growing movement in many industries, including manufacturing, finance, and medicine, to improve operational efficiency and create new business models by automating and increasing the sophistication of some complex tasks.

On the other hand, agent-type AI is still in its development stage, and has not yet reached the stage where it can be completely replaced autonomously. Gartner believes that in reality, the mainstream will be for humans and agents to work together to perform tasks. It is expected to contribute to the speed and sophistication of decision-making based on external and internal data, and to play a role as a foundation for supporting growth strategies, including risk management, cost optimization, and the refinement of resource allocation.

Gartner's Takeshi Ikeda (Vice President Analyst) said, ``In the 2026 edition, the rapidly evolving AI that forms the core of technologies and services is having a major impact on the way companies and organizations do business, so we are expanding the scope of AI as a new era of infrastructure technology.AI is attracting attention as an agent-type AI that functions more autonomously and collaborates, and is having a revolutionary impact on entire companies, including business departments, in all industries.''

According to the figures released this time, it will take ``more than 10 years'' for quantum computing and self-driving trucks to become fully widespread, while generative AI will take ``less than 2 years.'' It can be seen that generative AI-related technologies, including agent-type AI and physical AI, have become widespread in a very short period of time.