SberInvestments strategist named dollar exchange rate forecast for 2027
Quick Look
Dmitry Makarov, strategist at SberInvestments, predicts a gradual decrease in the key rate and a moderate weakening of the ruble by 2027, with the expected dollar exchange rate in the range of 85–95 rubles, an average value of about 89–92 rubles, provided that the trade balance is maintained and stable oil prices.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The forecast was made in the context of Russia's current monetary policy, oil price dynamics and government foreign exchange interventions.
SberInvestments stock market strategist Dmitry Makarov, in a conversation with Gazeta.Ru, called the most likely scenario for 2027 a gradual reduction in the key rate while simultaneously weakening the ruble moderately.
According to his forecast, the dollar will cost more than 85 rubles. At the same time, the expert emphasized that this does not mean a sharp jump in the exchange rate: while maintaining a positive trade balance, relatively stable oil prices and existing restrictions on the movement of capital, the ruble can weaken smoothly, alternating periods with temporary strengthening.
Makarov estimates the base range for 2027 to be 85–95 rubles per dollar, with an average value closer to 89–92 rubles. This scenario assumes a rate reduction, a gradual restoration of imports, a slight reduction in the interest attractiveness of ruble assets and weaker support from the government’s foreign exchange operations compared to periods of active currency sales.
A scenario of a stronger ruble—80–85 rubles per dollar—is possible if oil prices exceed expectations, export earnings remain stable, imports grow slowly, and the Ministry of Finance continues to sell foreign currency.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The dollar to ruble exchange rate will reach 85–95 rubles by 2027 with an average value of about 89–92 rubles
Likely · Within years
In the scenario of a stronger ruble, the rate will remain in the range of 80–85 rubles per dollar
Possible · Within years
Open Questions
- At what level will the key rate stabilize by 2027?
- What specific factors could lead to a scenario of a stronger ruble (80–85 rubles per dollar)?
