The Mainland Affairs Council, the National Defense Academy and the National Science Council held an international seminar on "Mainland China's Development Trends and Impacts under International Political and Economic Changes" today (20th), focusing on the CCP's compound security threats to Taiwan. Chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council Qiu Chuizheng warned that Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, will take more aggressive and provocative unilateral actions next year when he enters his fourth term, promoting "rule before rule" measures such as localizing domestic jurisdiction; domestic and foreign scholars at the meeting constructed " "Fortress Economy", the use of opposition forces to paralyze the government and elections, the Coast Guard's gray area law enforcement, and the spread of "suspicious theories" for psychological warfare, etc., calling on Taiwan to muster internal resistance and build a "democratic tie" that shares interests with the international community.
When Qiu Chuizheng presided over the "Roundtable Forum", he pointed out in the introduction that since the beginning of his third term in 2022, the Xi regime has used complex means such as military aircraft and ships to harass Taiwan, diplomatic suppression, economic coercion, social infiltration, cross-border suppression, legal warfare, and cognitive warfare to step up the pressure.
Qiu Chuizheng predicts that when the Xi regime enters its fourth term next year, it will promote "rule before unification" to promote unification, including four major approaches: first, shaping domestic administration and jurisdiction; second, shaping "international one China" to comprehensively suppress Taiwan's international space; third, using "transnational suppression" to fight independence and anti-intervention; fourth, using "national treatment" and "integration measures" to promote integration and unification. He emphasized that the government is actively implementing the "Four Pillars of Peace Action Plan" and the "Seventeen Response Strategies for National Security United Front Threats" to strengthen the defense resilience of the whole society to safeguard peace across the Taiwan Strait.
Regarding China's strategic preparations, Jimmy Goodrich, a senior researcher at the Institute of Global Conflict and Cooperation at the University of California and a senior science and technology consultant at the RAND Corporation, said that after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it has continuously emphasized preparation for "extreme situations" (i.e., war situations) and systematically formulated a "fortress economy" strategy.
Goodrich pointed out that in addition to improving technological capabilities such as AI, China has also strengthened its national reserve system for energy and food in the "15th Five-Year Plan" and promoted the "Key Industries Hinterland Transfer Plan" to move key industries from the southeastern coast to the inland. It has also established a "peacetime and wartime transition" mechanism based on its epidemic lockdown experience to maintain economic operations during the lockdown. However, he also mentioned that Taiwan possesses advanced chips that are indispensable for the development of global AI. From the perspective of economic interests, the international community will inevitably intervene and care when a crisis occurs in the Taiwan Strait.
Lin Wencheng, a former supervisory committee member and adjunct professor at Sun Yat-sen University, bluntly stated that the CCP not only exerts military and diplomatic pressure, but also uses opposition parties in the Legislative Yuan to paralyze government operations. It also attempts to intervene in Taiwan's local elections this year and the 2028 presidential election. It also uses social media such as Douyin and Xiaohongshu to change the national identity of the younger generation.
Lin Wencheng warned that the period between Xi Jinping's next term and the end of U.S. President Trump's term in 2029 is a relatively dangerous period for Taiwan. Due to Trump's businessman character and lack of an overall forward-looking strategic outlook, coupled with his friendly remarks towards Xi Jinping, Beijing may misjudge that the United States will not intervene militarily, which will then become a period of strategic opportunity for the CCP to expand its influence. He emphasized that the prerequisite for the CCP's use of force is to significantly weaken Taiwan's will to resist and reduce the cost. Taiwan's top priority is to enhance the people's crisis awareness and defense determination through education and propaganda.
Lin Zonghong, a researcher at the Institute of Sociology of Academia Sinica, analyzed that the structure of the CCP’s gray zone operations against Taiwan is changing. From 2025 to 2026, due to the purge of senior PLA officials, airspace intrusions have declined from their peak, but intrusions by naval warships and coast guard have continued to increase in an attempt to exercise substantive law enforcement power and jurisdiction on the sea.
In addition, the Chinese Communist Party has also taken advantage of Taiwan's internal social rifts to bribe local factions through economic policy leverage and interests, accompanied by the threat of transnational repression. He suggested that Taiwan must resolutely counterattack on the issue of free navigation in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, never recognize the CCP’s Coast Guard law enforcement rights, and establish a "democratic tie" with its allies to share technological and industrial interests.
Ye Yaoyuan, chair professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas in the United States, cited famous sayings such as "The Romance of the Three Kingdoms", "Attack the heart first, attack the city below." He pointed out that the U.S. government has long been concerned about the Taiwanese people's determination to defend themselves, while the CCP is using cognitive warfare to "isolate and alienate" Taiwan.
He analyzed that on the one hand, the CCP spreads "suspicious theories about America" and "suspicious theories about Sichuan" to create the illusion that Taiwan is isolated and helpless. However, in fact, Taiwan's estimated economic growth rate this year is nearly 12%, which proves that Taiwan is closely connected with the international economy and trade and has never been isolated. On the other hand, the CCP uses its internal war-avoidance mentality to spread "peace on knees is also peace" in an attempt to disintegrate Taiwanese society and question the defense budget and arms purchases.
Ye stressed that although democratic countries protect freedom of speech, the government, academia and the media must actively clarify the facts and respond positively to reshape the social consensus of protecting the homeland and the country in order to achieve effective deterrence.
