Germany is facing an accelerating demographic transformation, with expectations of a decline in the population and an increase in the proportion of the elderly, while the number of workers decreases. But this transformation will not affect all regions to the same extent, as major cities such as Berlin are expected to continue to grow, while other regions face increasing population and economic decline.
According to a new study prepared by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development in cooperation with the Fustenrut Foundation, the population of Germany may decline to about 81.8 million people by the year 2045, that is, about 1.7 million fewer people compared to the end of 2025.
The problem lies not only in the decline in population, but also in the changing age composition of society. With the arrival of the “Baby Boomer” generation, born during the period of a significant increase in birth rates after the end of World War II, the numbers of younger generations in the labor market are declining.
The head of the Berlin Institute, Katarina Hintz, said during the presentation of the study in Berlin: “The baby boomer generation is retiring, and is being replaced by much younger generations. The number of births is also declining, and immigration is not enough to compensate for the increase in the number of deaths compared to births.”
The study expects the number of working-age people to decline by 4.7% by 2045, with a greater decline in some regions of eastern Germany that may reach 18%. This would increase competition between regions to attract labor and put additional pressure on companies and the economy.
Some of the most severe challenges are in eastern Germany, where 12 of the 20 regions with the poorest overall ratings in the study are located, compared to just five in 2019.
But population shrinkage is not limited to the east, as western cities such as Bremen, Duisburg, Dortmund and Kaiserslautern also face economic and demographic challenges.
In contrast, Berlin is expected to lead the most developed regions, with a population increase of nearly 10% by 2045. Cities such as Hamburg, Frankfurt, Munich and Düsseldorf, along with Leipzig, Dresden and Potsdam, are also likely to continue to attract residents.
Manuel Slobina, representative of the Fustenrut Foundation, said that many major cities will continue to grow in the coming years. The expected growth is not limited to the cities themselves, as the surrounding areas may benefit as families move there, while young people move to urban centers in search of work and education opportunities.
With declining births and rising deaths in many regions, the importance of internal and external migration in determining their future increases. Areas that provide good jobs, decent wages, and effective public services have a greater chance of attracting residents.
But immigration alone cannot stop the aging of society, which makes improving working conditions and integrating women, the elderly and immigrants into the labor market essential priorities.
Hintz warns that the demographic shift is already occurring, and that postponing dealing with it reduces the scope for policy action. The study calls for solutions that suit the needs of each region, rather than applying uniform policies to growing cities and areas that are losing population.
As for Slobina, he believes that large cities need to expand housing and infrastructure, while declining areas need to maintain basic services with a smaller number of residents and resources.
