On November 4, the 140th Canton Fair came to an end in Guangzhou on the banks of the Pearl River. On November 5, on the banks of the Huangpu River, the ninth CIIE will kick off in Shanghai as scheduled.
One focuses on exports and the other focuses on imports. The two major economic and trade exhibitions come one after another, forming a vivid window for observing China's foreign trade and understanding global economic and trade cooperation.
The exchanges confirmed an increasingly clear judgment: the surplus lies with China, and the interests belong to all parties.
When many people look at international trade, they are accustomed to staring at the book numbers and obsessing over the ups and downs of the import-export balance. But trade is never a simple addition or subtraction of numbers. Behind it is the division of labor in the long and intertwined global industrial chain, a collaboration network that runs in both directions of supply and demand. If a country is more efficient in a certain industry, has more comprehensive supporting facilities and faster delivery, orders will naturally be concentrated there.
Data is most convincing. Judging from international experience, the median capacity utilization rate of developed and rapidly growing economies is mostly between 75% and 80%.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2025, my country's industrial capacity utilization rate above designated size will be 74.4%. In the third quarter of this year, the capacity utilization rate of the general equipment manufacturing industry was 79.6%, and the computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry reached 80.2%. The more high-tech and high-end equipment the industry has, the more full the machine is.
Looking at it this way, my country's industrial capacity utilization is generally within a reasonable range. In the final analysis, more sales are actually due to greater demand from countries around the world, and strong exports are the result of market choices. The continuous flow of orders at the Canton Fair is a reflection of the real demand for Chinese products in the global market.
By unfolding the value chain of export commodities, we can better understand the logic of the surplus in China and the interests of all parties.
Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory rolls off hundreds of thousands of complete vehicles a year, a considerable number of which are directly sent to the European and Asia-Pacific markets. Each of these vehicles is counted as "China exports." Things like this happen every day: foreign-funded enterprises are deeply involved in China, both in China and around the world.
Statistics from the General Administration of Customs show that in the first half of this year, foreign-invested enterprises accounted for nearly 30% of my country's exports to the EU; nearly 40% of China's exports to South Korea; and more than 30% of China's exports to emerging markets such as Mexico and Vietnam.
Overall, foreign-invested enterprises will contribute 27% of my country's total exports in 2025. In other words, out of every 10 goods shipped from China, nearly 3 are from foreign-owned factories.
If you take a product marked "Made in China" apart and look at it: the design may come from Germany, the key components come from Japan and South Korea, the raw materials come from Latin America, the final assembly is completed in the Yangtze River Delta or the Pearl River Delta, and finally sold to the Middle East, Europe or South America.
Products are shipped from China, and the surplus is recorded in China's account, but the profits are shared by partners in the entire industry chain. If we only focus on the book surplus and do not ask how the value is distributed, the calculated conclusion is destined to be one-sided.
The market itself continues to grow amidst technological iterations and demand upgrades. It is not an existing cake that has been divided and can only be fought over.
Let’s first look at the demand for green development. By 2030, global renewable energy installed capacity is expected to triple. This is a market gap that requires massive amounts of clean energy equipment to fill. In the first half of this year, private enterprises' exports of the "three new items" increased by 45.8%. When photovoltaic panels, lithium batteries, wind power equipment, etc. go overseas, they are not facing a saturated market, but new demands from the global green transformation.
There are many more intuitive examples: continuous high temperatures have pushed up the demand for refrigeration, and the European air-conditioning market is getting bigger and bigger. Many European businessmen have made a special trip to Guangzhou to purchase air conditioners in batches at the Canton Fair; many countries have accelerated the construction of prefabricated buildings and cultural tourism camps. At the Canton Fair, the number of inquiries for prefabricated building materials and modular housing booths has grown rapidly, which is also a direct reflection of market demand...
Where demand is, supply follows. Only when supply and demand move in the same direction can we work together to make the market pie bigger.
Another point cannot be ignored: China is not only a super seller, but also a super buyer.
In 2025, China's import scale will reach 18.5 trillion yuan, ranking as the world's second largest import market for 17 consecutive years and the main export destination for nearly 80 countries and regions.
In the first half of this year, imports exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time in history. China has never deliberately pursued a trade surplus and has always been committed to promoting more balanced development of trade.
The significance of economic and trade exchanges has never been a competition of one or another, but rather relying on each other's comparative advantages to allow development dividends to benefit every participant in the industrial chain while sharing what is needed.
The negotiations at the Canton Fair are slowly coming to an end, and the curtain of the China International Import Expo is about to begin. Many merchants have just finalized export orders in Guangzhou and then rushed to Shanghai to look for new opportunities in the Chinese market. The relay between the two economic and trade exhibitions reflects China's attitude and ambition to expand its opening up and embrace the world.
