Quick Comment》China takes heavy action against "Ocean Current". Does Jiang Wanan not want votes?

"Do you really want to give up such huge business interests in China?" Zheng Liwen just threw out this account. Nine days later, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council openly blackmailed Tsai Kangyong to "not be a two-faced person" and announced punishment for Shen Boyang's father's company. There are 45 days left before the voting. The prerequisite for the "ocean current" to break the circle is that the election campaign remains on municipal and daily life issues. However, the two-pronged attack during this period has pushed it in the other direction.

Polls show that the gap between Shen Boyang and Jiang Wanan has shrunk from 28 percentage points in late May to 8 percentage points. According to the analysis of green camp traders, the return rate of DPP supporters has increased from 60% to 70% to about 80%, and there are still 10% to 20% who have not yet returned. If these people return, there is still room for growth of 3 to 4 percentage points in support. On the other hand, Jiang Wanan's support in the blue camp has almost reached its peak. According to the trend of rising and falling, it is approaching the golden cross.

The final leg of the journey ultimately depends on the middle voters. The Shen camp also knows very well that this group of people does not decide their position based on party ideology, and "beating blue and green" against them will only be counterproductive. Therefore, the strategy is to avoid negative attacks from opponents; when encountering sharp issues, try to downplay the nature of the party as much as possible and bring the topic back to color-blind municipal administration. Only then will voters who originally supported candidates from other political parties be willing to listen more.

However, in the past two weeks, the topic of Taipei's election campaign has been brought back to Shen Boyang's drug treatment articles from 12 years ago, as well as his student chair and contact book; Hong Kong media and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council have turned their focus to his father's business. The two lines each took action, and both drew the focus from the municipal government that Shen's camp wanted to protect, to his past and family.

Hong Kong's Wen Wei Po, under the jurisdiction of the Liaison Office of the Central People's Government, alleged on the 13th that Shen's father's VWAY company took over the business after Trillion was punished in June last year, and made a big fuss about it with words such as "making red money." The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council immediately banned VWAY from trading with China today, criticizing Shen for making money from China while fighting China while working with his relatives. Hong Kong media had information as of March this year, but the report was only published 46 days before the vote. Why now? Where did the message come from?

This is not the first time that Shen Boyang has been targeted by "Hong Kong". The Beijing Inspection and Quarantine Bureau recently sued four credit reporting companies, revealing that Shen Boyang and his family were monitored around the clock in 2024, and the clients were two Hong Kong people. This pressure has also extended to artists and media. Cai Kangyong attended the launch of Shen Boyang's competition, but Chinese companies removed the program and the People's Liberation Army account warned that "he will pay an unbearable price."

The "ocean current" is bringing about the green camp's companionship effect. When the Kuomintang is facing tremendous pressure, China's intention to take action at this time is self-evident. However, regarding the huge interests Cheng Lai-wen asked, Beijing has demonstrated who has the right to decide whether this business can continue to exist; voters actually care more about commuting traffic, child care, and a green space near their homes. These interests do not distinguish between colors and do not depend on who's face. If Jiang Wan'an can let the election campaign lose focus, is it true that the votes are not needed?