◎ Wu Guodong
A few days ago, Jennifer Kavanagh, the analysis director of the non-mainstream think tank "Defense Priorities" in Washington, issued a report advocating that the US military should fully withdraw its Asian defense lines to the second island chain (such as Guam and Palau). It even suggested terminating or limiting the mutual defense treaty with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia, and adopting a non-intervention policy in the Taiwan Strait. It also suggested that the US Marine Corps in Okinawa should be withdrawn to the mainland before 2030, and the 500 US military instructors stationed in Taiwan should be withdrawn. As soon as this statement came out, it immediately triggered a wave of criticism from the Asia-Pacific strategic circles. However, when facing such pluralistic rhetoric of isolationism within the United States, the Chinese people do not need to dance with it and fall into collective anxiety. We should clearly understand the geopolitical trump card: if the first island chain is lost, the second island chain will not be able to defend itself alone, and the US military will be even less likely to show weakness to China.
The first island chain is lost and the second island chain cannot be held either.
A few days ago, Jennifer Kavanagh, director of analysis at Defense Priorities, a non-mainstream think tank in Washington, issued a report recommending that U.S. Marines in Okinawa be withdrawn to the mainland by 2030. (AP file photo) Looking back at history, arguments such as "abandonment of Taiwan" or "strategic retrenchment" have never been absent from American democratic society.
In the eyes of the Washington establishment, this is unrealistic and non-mainstream nonsense. Patrano, a professor of strategy at King's College London, bluntly said that withdrawing from the first island chain is equivalent to the complete withdrawal of the US military from the Indo-Pacific. Public opinion in South Korea has further criticized that this is tantamount to repeating the mistakes of the "Acheson Line of Defense" that excluded Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula from the defense circle before the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950. More importantly, the current Trump administration's "National Defense Strategy" has clearly emphasized that it will implement strong "denial-based defense" in the "first island chain" and will never show weakness to Beijing.
During his recent visit to the UK, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte issued a stern warning that if China takes military action against Taiwan or anywhere in the "first island chain" in the Indo-Pacific region, senior strategic decision-makers in the United States and Europe are convinced that China will force and join forces with Russia to open a second battlefield in Europe to take action against the West, turning it into a deadly "simultaneous conflict in two theaters." His authoritative warning of "dual theater conflict" essentially highlighted the interdependence between the first island chain and global security, and also shattered the illusion that the US military could retreat alone.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary-General Rutte (right) warned that if China invades Taiwan, it may force Russia to attack Europe as well, and NATO must be prepared for simultaneous conflicts in two theaters in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. (Bloomberg file photo) General Li Xiangzhou, former army commander, director of national security and representative in Denmark, also recently made an incisive analysis of this, emphasizing that the core of U.S. decision-making still focuses on strengthening the resilience of the first island chain. The core wisdom of why the United States maintains "strategic ambiguity" for a long time is that its "uncertainty" can exert binding force on both sides of the Taiwan Strait: Beijing is unable to confirm the upper limit of the cost of US military intervention, so it restrains its impulse to use force; Taipei is also unable to determine that the US military will definitely send troops, so it restrains the temptation to comprehensively change the status quo. This kind of ambiguity, used appropriately, is a flexible deterrent bargaining chip that has maintained cross-strait peace for decades.
However, Chinese people must understand the "user pays" principle of Trump's strategy. In January 2025, Trump asked the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and EU countries to significantly increase their defense budgets to 5% of gross domestic product (GDP): 3.5% of which is core defense spending, including weapons and military salaries; 1.5% is investment in security-related infrastructure. Trump’s goal is to make Europe independent in defense so that the United States can move all its military power eastward and concentrate it on Asia to deal with China. Facing this great power game of the century, the best way for democratic allies on the first island chain in the Pacific to respond is to use a substantial increase in defense budgets to show the White House and the world their tenacious "determination to self-defense."
Japan is currently considering setting a new medium-term defense spending target. One of the options is to follow South Korea's commitment to increase the defense budget to 3.5% of GDP within ten years, in line with the standards of NATO and other U.S. allies, or set it at a lower 3%.
Increase defense spending to 5% of GDP and arm ourselves like a hedgehog
General Li Xiangzhou emphasized that the core of U.S. decision-making is still to strengthen the resilience of the first island chain. (File photo) President Lai Ching-te promised as early as August 2025 to increase Taiwan’s defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2030. This commitment is in line with NATO standards: 3.5% of it will be used as "core defense expenditures", earmarked for accelerating the procurement of new weapons, building independent asymmetric combat capabilities, and comprehensively improving the salary, benefits and benefits of the national military; while the remaining 1.5% is "security-related infrastructure investment" to strengthen the defense resilience of critical infrastructure such as cybersecurity, energy, and ports. This clear budget plan not only demonstrates "Taiwan's determination to defend itself" to the world, it is also the key to actually increasing the price of high school complicity in Taiwan.
To sum up, in the face of the turmoil of some scholars in American think tanks, we have no need to be nervous, and we have no time to feel sorry for ourselves. When Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia and other countries jointly increase defense spending and arm themselves into "hedgehogs" that are difficult to swallow, it not only completely exposes the blind spot of retreat theories such as Kavanagh's, but also consolidates the strategic determination of the US political circles and the Trump administration to continue to deploy heavy troops in the first island chain. Only strength can bring peace. Taiwan's determination to have its defense budget account for 5% of GDP is our strongest sword to pierce the false geopolitical proposition.
Taiwan will increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2030. The picture shows the Han Kuang 42 exercise. The Air Force's Tiangong Missile Force is stationed at a tactical position in the greater Taipei area and is on standby for combat. (European News Agency file photo)
