Countdown to Xi Jinping’s endgame! US media: Failure to designate a successor may exacerbate political instability

The US news website "Semafor" published a commentary on the 13th entitled "The countdown to Xi Jinping's end will become the focus of global attention", pointing out that after Xi Jinping's collapse, there may be violent turmoil within the CCP, and even the old party may launch a coup like what happened after Mao Zedong's death.

The commentary quoted Australian sinologist Geremie R. Barme as saying: "Both dictators and paternalistic rulers face the same fatal dilemma, that is, once they take power, the countdown to their demise begins."

Commentators said that Mao Zedong's health deteriorated and eventually went crazy, bringing China to the brink of civil war. China's political situation was turbulent 10 years before Deng Xiaoping's death, including the Tiananmen Square incident, but he eventually died peacefully. Now, the countdown to Xi Jinping’s endgame has begun.

Comments pointed out that the 73-year-old Xi Jinping is in poor health and his movements are obviously slow. During his recent visit to the United States, he even needed to be secretly supported by his wife Peng Liyuan when he stepped off the plane; while at the White House, China rarely requested a "lounge", and his meeting with Trump was unexpectedly short.

Yet even with his health concerns, Xi Jinping has not clearly named a successor, as his predecessors did.

Commentary analysis shows that the transfer of power is the most dangerous moment for an authoritarian regime, and the dilemma faced by Xi Jinping is particularly difficult. Because if he appoints a successor now to continue his policies and maintain his political legacy, fierce internal fighting may occur years before he is ready to hand over power, shaking his power in advance; but if it is delayed for too long, it will lead to a dangerous power vacuum once he dies.

However, looking at the current situation, the current members of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China are all older, and the possibility of succeeding Xi Jinping is extremely low; if new people are promoted across levels, they may lack enough strength to win the loyalty of the military and maintain the unity of the party. In addition, after Xi Jinping appointed a successor, he may abandon him again. Liu Shaoqi, one of Mao Zedong's designated successors, died of diabetes and pneumonia in solitary confinement and ended up lying in his own excrement. Deng Xiaoping appointed two successors before finally choosing Jiang Zemin.

Xi Jinping has become increasingly suspicious of those around him, and has purged a large number of senior officials over the past decade, making potential "second-in-commands" extremely dangerous and difficult to survive.

The commentary also warned that Xi Jinping has always regarded reunification of Taiwan as his core goal. If China faces long-term political uncertainty and economic decline in the future, and social dissatisfaction rises, he is likely to make a desperate move on the Taiwan issue.

The comment finally pointed out that the end of Xi Jinping’s era may be like Mao Zedong’s era. After Mao Zedong's death, his subordinates immediately launched a bloodless coup, arrested the "Gang of Four" headed by Mao's wife Jiang Qing, and held a public trial. In fact, when Xi Jinping first came to power in 2012, there were violent turmoils such as the arrest of his main opponent Bo Xilai and rumors of tanks and gunshots appearing on the streets of Beijing.

Today, Xi Jinping has brought China back to the era of personal dictatorship. Now that he has reached the pinnacle of power, he must now face the consequences for China. As Deng Xiaoping once warned, "It is very unhealthy and very dangerous to base the destiny of a country on the reputation of one or two people."