(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) The core symbol of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is to encourage people to oppose refugees and large-scale immigration. However, the refugee issue does not seem to play a decisive role in this election in Saxony-Anhalt. This was confirmed by vote analysis conducted on election day by the polling agency infratest dimap.
The analysis shows that immigration issues only play a minor role in voters' decision-making, while issues such as social security, European peace and economic policy are much more important. Immigration issues do not occupy a primary position among AfD voters. Saskatchewan has the lowest proportion of foreign residents in Germany: about 9% of the population is foreign, well below the national average of about 15%.
Saxony-Anhalt is also one of the weakest small states in Germany economically. Its wage level is lower than other states, and the shortage of high-skilled talents is more serious. The outflow of high-quality professional talents has been plaguing the state for decades.
It is worth noting that in Saxony-Anhalt, the Alternative for Germany party was recognized as a right-wing extremist party by the Constitutional Protection Agency, but in all areas it defeated the Christian Democratic Union led by the current governor Sven Schulze. Twice as many people think that the AfD is more effective in combating crime or asylum policies than the CDU. Even in the economic field, the traditional core issue of the CDU, the AfD is ahead of its opponents.
Poll shows: Alternative for Germany closer to people
The Alternative for Germany has clearly succeeded in establishing a special connection with ordinary people at the grassroots level. In a survey conducted by infrastest dimap, 67% of voters said the AfD better understood people's security issues. More than half of the respondents believe that the Alternative for Germany better understands the concerns of ordinary people than other political parties.
Many people not only feel understood by the AfD, but also believe that the party has the best chance of solving real problems in the state. When asked which political party is currently best suited to cope with future challenges, especially among young people, the AfD is most often mentioned. Not only that, among older voters, the Alternative for Germany also leads.
In contrast, the electoral results for the party led by German Chancellor Mertz were disastrous. Among young voters, only 5% believe that the CDU will be able to find the best solutions to future problems, while 3% believe that the SPD will be able to do this. This conclusion is shocking.
A wake-up call for Chancellor Merz
Voters in Saxony-Anhalt clearly hope that this election will serve as a wake-up call for Berlin: 59% of respondents said that the election results were the punishment the federal government deserved. As the biggest loser in this election, the CDU felt the people's anger most directly: 58% of respondents told that they hate the Prime Minister's party the most.
Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why the CDU state-level party headquarters did not request Mertz himself to participate in the election, because the public was not satisfied with his performance, and Mertz's popularity dropped to an all-time low. In a ranking of satisfaction with politicians, he lags far behind the AfD party chairman and his governing partner, the Social Democratic Party.
The AfD has made significant gains among all demographic groups, especially among blue-collar workers and freelancers. Nearly two-thirds of blue-collar workers, and more than half of freelance workers, voted for the party.
Although the party made gains among both male and female voters, male voters still dominated: the party received 52% of the male vote and 32% of the female vote. Nonetheless, it is also the strongest party among female voters.
The success of the Alternative for Germany is also due to its strong mobilization ability. A large number of former non-voters participated in the vote this time, raising the turnout rate in this election to nearly 78%. The AfD received more votes from this group than any other party.
Listen to his words and watch his actions
Political science professor Petra Dobner said in an interview with German TV that from a historical perspective, this is a significant moment, because in a German federal state, nearly half of the voters can imagine a far-right party coming to power.
However, she believes that we need to listen to his words and watch his actions. "It remains to be seen to what extent the AfD can change this state."
Dobner said, "We will definitely see some changes in the coming months. Schools, culture and other areas will be under a lot of pressure. But the AfD has also made some promises, let's put it this way: if they fulfill their promises, of course it is a good thing, for example, in improving infrastructure and so on. But the question is, where will the money come from."
Can the government be successfully formed?
The next step is to see whether the Alternative for Germany can successfully form a government in Saxony-Anhalt. The state parliament has a total of 83 seats, 42 seats are a majority, and the AfD has 39 seats. It cannot govern alone and needs to find a governing partner. Since the CDU, Social Democratic Party, Green Party and Left Party have all stated that they will not govern jointly with the Alternative for Germany, the only remaining party that may govern with the AfD is the BSW, which split from the Left Party. If they form a coalition, they will get 44 seats in parliament.
According to the law, the new state assembly must be established within 30 days after the election of the state assembly, but it is not clear when the new governor will be elected by the new members. During this period, the old governor continues to govern on an acting basis.
