
台灣整合防災工程技術顧問公司總監賈新興指出,受極強聖嬰影響,台灣9月至11月高溫機率高,9月至10月降雨訊號收斂,偏少雨為主;同時低緯度海溫熱含量高,季風槽正醞釀雙系統,南海及關島可能陸續生成熱帶性低氣壓或颱風,農業水資源等產業需調整策略。
AI-generated summary
聖嬰現象是指赤道太平洋海溫異常升高的氣候現象,通常會導致全球氣候異常,影響台灣秋冬季節的溫度與降水分布。
賈新興指出,低緯度海溫熱含量高,季風槽正醞釀雙系統,近日在南海及關島可能陸續有熱帶性低氣壓或颱風生成。(圖擷自臉書)
台灣整合防災工程技術顧問公司總監賈新興指出,「非常強聖嬰」的影響全面展開,今年秋季(9月至11月)高溫機率高,且9月至10月降雨訊號收斂,預估秋老虎威力不容小覷。另外低緯度海溫熱含量高,季風槽正醞釀雙系統,接下來在南海及關島可能陸續有熱帶性低氣壓或颱風生成。
賈新興今上午發文指出,「非常強聖嬰」的影響全面展開!秋季氣候正式定調。他表示9月至11月高溫機率高,9月至10月更以偏少雨為主!同時低緯度洋面動能充沛,南海熱帶性低氣壓(TD)與關島颱風的生成時程也陸續明朗化!
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賈新興表示,預估12日至13日,大氣環境轉為偏東風,白天各地氣溫稍回升,迎風面零星短暫雨。13日之後,環境將再轉為偏東北風,清晨及夜間空曠地區略有涼意,早出晚歸注意日夜溫差。
賈新興說明,至於低緯度海溫熱含量高,季風槽正醞釀雙系統。其中12至13日在南海附近,需密切觀察是否有熱帶性低氣壓(TD)發展生成。15、16日在關島一帶,需重點觀察是否有進一步發展為「颱風」的機率!同時也需緊盯後續駛流與對台影響。
賈新興提到,受到「非常強聖嬰」將主導秋季天氣,預估影響9月至11月,台灣氣溫整體以「高溫的機率較高」,秋老虎威力不容小覷。另外9月至10月,降雨訊號收斂,轉以「偏少雨」的機率較高!賈新興為此也提醒,「農業及水資源,服飾成衣業,可以調整策略」。
賈新興指出,「非常強聖嬰」的影響全面展開,今年秋季(9月至11月)高溫機率高,且9月至10月降雨訊號收斂,預估秋老虎威力不容小覷。(圖擷自臉書)
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
南海將在12至13日可能生成熱帶性低氣壓
Possible · Within days
關島地區在15至16日有進一步發展為颱風的機率
Possible · Within days

The Central Meteorological Administration predicts that due to the influence of the northeast monsoon, today there will be more clouds and local brief showers in the north and eastern half of Taoyuan. It will be cloudy to sunny in the south of Taoyuan. The temperature will be 29-30 degrees in the north and east and 31-32 degrees in the south. The night temperature will be cool and low at 22-25 degrees. Outlying islands and air quality are also explained. In the next few days, the northeast monsoon will continue to affect the east and mountainous areas with local showers.

According to the website of the Central Meteorological Observatory, heavy rainfall occurred in Sichuan, Qinghai and other places yesterday, and strong winds and cooling occurred in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Henan. It is expected that cold air will continue to affect the northern region in the next three days, with heavy rainfall in Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Sichuan and other places. It is necessary to prevent secondary disasters such as flash floods, geological disasters, small and medium-sized river floods that may be caused by local heavy rainfall.

Affected by the northeast monsoon, there is a chance of short-term showers in the northern, northeastern, and eastern parts of Taiwan, with more obvious rainfall in the eastern half and eastern Huadong areas. The south may be affected by a tropical system over the weekend, and the northern high pressure will move eastward. The temperature difference between day and night will be obvious across Taiwan. The northeasterly wind will maintain in the coming week, and afternoon thunderstorms will continue in the mountainous areas. The development of tropical low pressure needs to be paid attention to.

Affected by the cold air, the northern rainfall area moves southward, and the rainfall in the Sichuan Basin intensifies. There are heavy rains or heavy rains in some areas, and secondary disasters need to be guarded against. There will be significant cooling in southern North China, Huanghuai and other places. The temperature in many places will hit a record low in six months. It will be significantly cooler in the morning and evening. The public is advised to put on clothes in time.
The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a weather forecast. Yesterday there were moderate to heavy rains and local heavy rains in southern Fujian and southern Jiangxi. Affected by the cold air, Qinghai, Gansu and other places will have light to moderate rains, local heavy rains and strong convective weather from the 6th to the 9th. Inner Mongolia and other places will have a 4-6℃ temperature drop. Experts remind the public to be wary of flash floods and other disasters and to add clothes in time.

Affected by the cloud system outside the typhoon from tonight to Sunday, there will be brief showers in northern Taiwan and Yilan. It will be cloudy in central and southern Taiwan and eastern Huadong, and there will be local thundershowers in the afternoon. Mild typhoon Korowang is moving near Ryukyu. The weather in Taiwan will stabilize in the next few days. Next week, the northeast monsoon will move south but its intensity will be weak. The ultraviolet index on outlying islands reached excessive levels on Sunday. The air quality in Yilan and Huadong was rated as good and in other areas as fair.