The parliamentary movement in Libya, demanding the amendment of the internal regulations and activating the principle of rotation of power within the council, which is based in Benghazi and has been headed by Aguila Saleh for about 12 years, has raised questions about the extent of its continuity and its ability to bring about change.
The questions raised about this movement are not limited to the timing of this “late awakening” of a bloc opposing “Saleh’s monopolization of the decision,” but rather extend to the extent to which its movement is linked to the “4+4” agreement and the opportunities for its implementation, as one of the possible ways out to end the division, through the formation of a unified executive authority that will lead the country towards elections within two years.
Opinions varied regarding the outcome of the movement. The anti-Saleh bloc confirms that it continues to seek “to reform the Council and change its presidency,” despite being prevented from holding a session dedicated to that in the middle of last week, by closing the Council’s headquarters in Benghazi on instructions from its presidency, according to its statement.
Representative Issam Al-Jahani, one of the most prominent voices of that bloc, said that the 86 members may meet in any Libyan city where it is possible to perform their duties. He stressed that the matter “is not a conspiracy or an attempt to inherit Saleh’s seat,” but rather a desire for “reform in response to his exclusivity in decisions and his clinging to his position.”
On the other hand, other political voices spoke about the possibility of “the dispersion of this movement and its gradual decline,” noting that “its calm or eruption is linked to the balances between the active power centers in the eastern region, and also to regional pressures.”
A member of the Libyan House of Representatives, Ali Al-Takbali, expected “a decline in the current movement in the House,” based in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat on what happened last March, when a bloc of representatives also called for a session to reform the internal regulations, and then their movement disappeared.
Al-Takbali believes that “it is difficult to maintain a quorum to hold a session that guarantees the removal of the Speaker of the Council,” and said that representatives “may meet to object to a position, but when each of them returns to his city, it is difficult to gather them again, especially with some of them reviewing their position because it conflicts with their own interests or tribal affiliation.”
Council member Montaser Al-Hassi warned of “the division of parliament due to the actions of some members,” and despite his adherence to the right of representatives to amend the list, he stressed that this should be achieved through “legal channels.”
For years, Libya has been experiencing a division between two governments. The temporary “National Unity” headed by Abdel Hamid Al-Dabaiba in Tripoli, and the government of Osama Hammad, which runs the east and some cities in the south, is mandated by Parliament, and is supported by the commander of the “National Army”, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.
According to the “4+4” agreement, which was concluded at the end of last month between representatives of the “Unity” and the “National Army” under international auspices, a new authority will be formed from a presidential council and a unified government, paving the way for general elections within two years.
Observers and political voices point out that “regional countries see Saleh’s continuation as a guarantee to avoid a fracture in the legislative institution,” as it is the only institution surviving the institutional division.
The analyst, Hossam Fneish, linked what is happening to developments in the “4+4” agreement, and warned that “the priority of the Reform Bloc in the Council to change the regulations before holding the sessions postpones including the agreement in the constitutional declaration, which hinders its implementation even though it paves the way for elections and ends the division.”
He pointed out that “the UN mission prefers to include the agreement in a constitutional amendment, in preparation for its approval by the Security Council.”
The head of the “Voice of the People” party, Fathi Al-Shibli, pointed out that “what is being circulated about Saleh’s monopolization of the decision, and the lack of a quorum for some sessions, has been on the table for years without objection from the representatives,” considering that “it reinforces suspicions that the current dispute is a struggle between blocs supported by influential forces, and does not pave the way for any real reform.”
Al-Shibli expected Aqeela to continue for a period of time “until the UN mission calls to form an alternative constituent council to its council and the Supreme Council of State to proceed with the implementation of the (4+4) agreement, as they reject any change in the political scene.”
Political analyst Mohamed Mahfouz did not deviate from previous opinions, considering that what is happening in Parliament is “a conflict of projects between powerful forces, in which each party, whether in eastern or western Libya, is trying to prove its worth and ability to control the scene before the international community.”
In a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat, Mahfouz attributed Saleh’s retention of his position to two factors: The first is his ability with his allies to absorb the current anger, suggesting “the help of the rest of the presidential office, especially his two deputies, since they may be exposed to change, like him.” The second factor, according to Mahfouz, is “the support of some regional and Western countries, in a way that reduces the pressure on him.”
