Abiy Ahmed came to power in Ethiopia in 2018 driven by peace and the unification of his country, which had suffered from decades of conflict. He won the Nobel Prize as a result of that path, but after 8 years he finds himself facing a dramatic scene that turns yesterday’s most prominent allies into his enemies today.
These losses are expanding by establishing an armed coalition against Abiy Ahmed, led by some of yesterday’s allies, and achieving field control in the north of the country in addition to a tense front with Eritrea, which was one of his supporters in his war against the Tigray Liberation Front in 2020, before the relationship between the two countries turned into escalating rivalry.
Experts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat differ about the development of this crisis, between those who believe that it is likely to worsen, and those who consider it to be temporary and temporary. However, they agree that it is due to reasons including the widening gap of differences between Abiy Ahmed and his allies, and external support, especially from Asmara.
On Sunday, the Ethiopian crisis entered a new phase with seven armed forces, including the “Tigray People’s Liberation Front,” the “Fano National Movement in Amhara,” and the “Oromo Liberation Army,” announcing the formation of an alliance called the “Ethiopian Forces for Survival Alliance,” declaring its goal to end the rule of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and form a comprehensive transitional administration.
The irony, according to what African affairs expert Ali Mahmoud Kalni told Asharq Al-Awsat, is that some of these forces were until recently fighting in opposing camps. According to Kalni, the shift in Fano’s position in Amhara is “one of the most prominent indicators of the change in the map of alliances among yesterday’s friends after its support for the first emergence of a framework that brings together a number of the most prominent armed forces opposed to the government.”
The Fano factions fought alongside the federal forces against the Tigray Front during the 2020-2022 war, before turning to confront the government amid escalating disputes regarding the security of the Amhara region and the post-Pretoria Agreement arrangements, especially after the government’s decision in 2023 to disband the special forces affiliated with the regions and integrate their members into the army and police, a step that raised widespread fears in Amhara of weakening the region’s security capabilities. Since 2023, Fano fighters and federal forces have been waging armed confrontations in the region.
In Tigray, the 2022 Pretoria Agreement did not resolve all outstanding issues, especially related to disputed territories, security arrangements, and the future of the relationship between the Front and the federal government. With renewed tensions during 2026, the fireball accelerated and Abiy Ahmed’s opponents increased with this armed alliance, which the Tigray Front joined.
As for Oromia, the conflict continued between the government and the Oromo Liberation Army, although the movement had returned to Ethiopia after Abiy Ahmed came to power before the armed confrontation also resumed.
This gathering, which was excluded years ago in Abiy Ahmed’s scenarios, has become a reality, for several reasons, according to “Kelni,” explaining that the meeting of these forces in one alliance reflects the widening gap between the federal government and a number of armed regional powers.
What unites these forces currently, according to Kalni, is their opposition to the policies of the central government, rather than their participation in a unified political project.
In his readings of the scene, Ethiopian political analyst Zahid Zeidan believes that the developments that prompted these forces to converge and attempt to coordinate against Abiy Ahmed’s government are due to regional complications and external support, represented by the Eritrean position, the state of political hostility, and demands for regional and historical entitlements that these forces believe have been marginalized by the federal government. This is despite the sharp historical differences between these same components, as the Fano forces supported the federal army in its war against Tigray two years ago.
On the ground, the day after the Tigray Front took control of airports in the north of the country, the Ethiopian army announced, in a statement on Thursday, the killing of 272 rebels in battles in the north of the country, while Abiy Ahmed arrived in neighboring Djibouti to announce a joint project aimed at strengthening economic relations, without direct comment on the accelerating events.
Following the escalation, the US Ambassador to Ethiopia, Irvin J. Masinga, on Wednesday, expressed his disappointment with the decision of the leadership of the “Tigray People’s Liberation Front” to launch a large-scale attack, and said: “I am disappointed in the decision of the leadership of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which the United States imposed sanctions on earlier this year, to launch a large-scale attack today. Rejecting the African Union-sponsored dialogue led by President Obasanjo, and engaging in an unwinnable fight, does nothing to serve the people. “It would be wise for other armed groups to avoid this path.”
On Wednesday, the rebels in Tigray, the most prominent elements of the new armed coalition, seized control of Mekelle Airport, the capital of the region, from the federal police. Ethiopian Airlines suspended its flights to the region due to the “current situation,” according to what security and local sources reported to Reuters and the French press on Wednesday.
Regarding the future of that front, which Abiy Ahmed lost amid the ongoing confrontations, Kalni believes that the alliance is an important transformation in the armed opposition because it brings together forces from Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and other regions within a single political framework, but it does not necessarily mean that these forces have become a cohesive front. He explained that disputes over land, identity, the form of the state, and the distribution of power still exist, especially between Amhara and Tigray, and each movement has its own local agenda and different history with the government and with other forces.
But the tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the war in Sudan, and competition for influence in the Red Sea region are all factors that make any escalation within Ethiopia have repercussions that go beyond its borders, according to Kalni, stressing that the challenge before Abiy Ahmed’s government is not only confronting separate armed groups, but rather the possibility of several local conflicts transforming into a common political and military framework.
However, Zuhdi Zaidan believes that the current alliance is temporary and temporary, “in which the cost of human losses and the lack of stability will increase until it ends, in the absence of a unified political or military basis for building a state,” pointing to the refusal of major blocs in the Afar and Benishangul to join them, in contrast to the Ethiopian street’s rejection of this armed alliance and the realization that there are external plans moving it.
Today (Thursday), residents of the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia rushed to stock up on food, cash and basic goods, fearing that renewed fighting would lead to the outbreak of a new major war, according to Reuters news agency.
Tigray forces seized 3 airports in the region, and launched attacks in the Afar and Amhara regions in cooperation with their allies there this week, in the most dangerous escalation since the devastating war that took place between 2020 and 2022 against federal government forces.
The United Nations and the European Union called for restraint and a return to the peace process mediated by the African Union that ended a conflict that claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands.
Addis Ababa accused the regional leadership (the Tigray People's Liberation Front) of launching a large-scale attack. The regional government said that its fighters were waging a “defensive war” against federal government forces, which they said had used drones, artillery, and ground forces against them.
The renewed war in Tigray may lead to further turmoil in the Horn of Africa region, which is already suffering from instability as a result of deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the civil war in Sudan, tensions in the Red Sea, and the repercussions of conflicts in the Middle East.
“We buy almost everything we think might become necessary,” a resident of Mekele, the capital of Tigray, told Reuters by phone, describing the acts of hoarding food and withdrawing cash.
The man, who requested anonymity for security reasons, added: “Almost all basic necessities have become difficult to obtain or expensive. “There is also a growing fear that the situation will deteriorate into a siege similar to the one we witnessed during the previous war.”
He pointed out that Tigray forces are patrolling the streets, while drones fly in the air, adding that people fear running out of food.
He and another resident explained that they saw young men being forced to join the war effort, which sparked fear among the public.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front stated that it acted in self-defense to protect the region's residents from "comprehensive aggression" by the government using ground forces supported by warplanes, drones, and artillery.
A government official told Reuters: “The Tigray People’s Liberation Front” launched a deliberate attack on civilian infrastructure by taking control of airports in the region, but stressed that the door to dialogue is still open to any groups that lay down their weapons.
