As global warming rises by 4 degrees, the number of ski resorts in Japan will drop to 7, analyzed by Hokkaido University and others
Quick Look
- A research team from Hokkaido University and the Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute conducted a simulation analysis using Japan Meteorological Agency climate forecast data and found that if the global average temperature were to rise 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels due to global warming, the number of ski resorts in Japan that can operate reliably with only natural snow would decrease to seven.
- It is estimated that 53 ski resorts will be able to open at full capacity if the temperature rises to 2 degrees Celsius, and researchers say that a temperature rise of 4 degrees Celsius would have a devastating impact on the ski industry.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Paris Agreement is an international climate change framework adopted at COP21 in 2015 that aims to reduce global average temperature increases to less than double the pre-industrial level.
A research team from Hokkaido University and the Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute has analyzed that if global average temperatures rise by 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels due to global warming, only seven ski resorts in Japan will be able to operate reliably using natural snow. There are concerns that the closure of the ski resort will have an impact on local tourism and ski culture.
The team selected 349 ski resorts in Japan, excluding indoor ski resorts. Snowfall simulations were conducted for each ski resort based on climate forecast data published by the Japan Meteorological Agency.
As a result, under the ``4 degrees'' condition, which is expected to be reached if few measures are taken to prevent climate change, there are only seven ski resorts in Japan that can operate at full capacity reliably with only natural snow: Hokkaido (three), Akita, Yamagata, Nagano, and Gunma prefectures. Only 26 locations were partially open for business.
Under the ``2 degrees'' condition, which corresponds to the target value of the Paris Agreement, which was adopted at COP21 in 2015 as a new international framework in which all countries participate, it was estimated that 53 locations would be fully open for business, and 108 locations would be partially open. Nao Yoshizawa, a lecturer in tourism geography at Hokkaido University, said, ``At 4 degrees Celsius, Japan's ski industry would be devastated, but at 2 degrees Celsius, it has become clear that ski resorts, especially those at high altitudes and latitudes, remain open.''
In simulation, past reality...
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
If the global warming increases by four degrees, the number of ski resorts that can only operate with natural snow in the country will decrease to seven.
Likely · Within years
If global warming is doubled, it's predicted that there will be 53 fully operational ski resorts left.
Likely · Within years
Open Questions
- What are the specific names of these ski resorts that are predicted to decrease by seven places?
- In which areas are the 26 ski resorts that are partially open for business concentrated?
- What is the specific impact of ski resort closures on the local economy?
