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Back大西洋颶風季異常平靜 東太平洋卻異常活躍 聖嬰現象主導兩極格局
大西洋颶風季異常平靜 東太平洋卻異常活躍 聖嬰現象主導兩極格局
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自由时报1 hour agoEnvironment2 min readChinaView translation

大西洋颶風季異常平靜 東太平洋卻異常活躍 聖嬰現象主導兩極格局

聖嬰現象大西洋颶風東太平洋風暴

Quick Look

受強烈聖嬰現象影響，2026年大西洋颶風季至今未生成任何颶風，創衛星觀測以來最長無颶風紀錄；東太平洋風暴活動卻達正常水準兩倍，中太平洋高出40%，專家形容東太平洋『像在開派對』，風暴接連不斷。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

聖嬰現象（El Nino）是指赤道東太平洋海面溫度異常升高的氣候現象，會影響全球天氣模式。歷史上，聖嬰年往往抑制大西洋颶風生成，但增強太平洋熱帶氣旋活動。

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今年颶風季，大西洋平靜到打破紀錄，東太平洋卻像在「開派對」，風暴一個接著一個出現。專家指出，強大的聖嬰現象（El Nino）壓制大西洋風暴發展，導致今年至今颶風數量掛零；卻助長太平洋風暴活動，猶如開派對。

《美聯社》報導，此時通常正值颶風季高峰，美國國家颶風中心表示，今年大西洋至今尚未形成任何颶風，未來至少一週也不太可能出現。美國氣象預報中心氣象學家諾維拉（Nick Novella）表示，截至週六，2026年已創下衛星觀測年代以來，颶風季開始後最長時間未出现颶風的紀錄。

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大氣專家指出，任何試圖發展的風暴，都遭遇「三重打擊」：強風切斷風暴結構，乾燥空氣使其失去水氣供應，下沉氣流則進一步壓制它。這3種力量都是聖嬰現象的典型影響。

聖嬰通常抑制大西洋颶風活動，卻會透過潮濕空氣及較弱風切，助長太平洋熱帶氣旋發展。今年至今，東太平洋風暴活動量接近正常水準的兩倍，颶風持續時間也比往年長得多；中太平洋活動量則比正常水準高約40％。

科羅拉多州立大學颶風專家克洛茲巴赫（Phil Klotzbach）形容，東太平洋就像正在開派對，風暴一個接著一個出現。大西洋今年僅出現5個小型熱帶風暴，東太平洋卻已有16個命名風暴，中太平洋則有20個。台灣所在的西北太平洋，根據日本氣象廳速報統計顯示，截至9月9日，今年已生成24個颱風，8月就有10個。

報導指出，預報人員數月前便預測，今年大西洋颶風季將受聖嬰現象影響而較不活躍。不過，邁阿密大學颶風專家麥克諾迪（Brian McNoldy）表示，恐怕沒有人料到會如此平靜，「這實在相當不尋常」。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 大西洋颶風季將維持平靜狀態，短期內不太可能形成颶風

    Likely · Within weeks

  • 東太平洋風暴活動將維持高於正常水準

    Likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 此種大西洋-太平洋颶風活動極端分化是否會持續到颶風季結束？
  • 若聖嬰現象增強，是否會進一步壓制大西洋風暴？
  • 東太平洋異常活躍是否會增加對墨西哥、中美洲的風暴威脅？

Related Topics

聖嬰現象
People諾維拉（Nick Novella）克洛茲巴赫（Phil Klotzbach）麥克諾迪（Brian McNoldy）
Organizations美國國家颶風中心美國氣象預報中心科羅拉多州立大學邁阿密大學
Places大西洋東太平洋中太平洋西北太平洋
Topics大西洋颶風東太平洋風暴中太平洋颱風氣候異常熱帶氣旋美國國家颶風中心
This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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