The Atlantic hurricane season is unusually quiet, but the Eastern Pacific is extremely active. El Niño dominates the bipolar pattern.
Quick Look
- Affected by the strong El Niño phenomenon, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has not produced any hurricanes so far, setting a record for the longest hurricane-free season since satellite observations.
- However, storm activity in the Eastern Pacific has reached twice the normal level, and 40% higher in the Central Pacific.
- Experts describe the Eastern Pacific as "like a party" with continuous storms.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
El Nino is a climate phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise abnormally, affecting global weather patterns. Historically, the Year of the Holy Child has tended to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic but enhance tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.
This year's hurricane season, the Atlantic Ocean has been record-breaking calm, but the Eastern Pacific Ocean is like a "party" with storms appearing one after another. Experts point out that the powerful El Nino suppresses the development of storms in the Atlantic, causing the number of hurricanes to hit zero so far this year; but it boosts storm activity in the Pacific, like a party.
The Associated Press reported that at this time, which is usually the peak of hurricane season, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said that no hurricane has formed in the Atlantic Ocean so far this year, and it is unlikely to do so in at least the next week. Nick Novella, a meteorologist at the U.S. Weather Forecast Center, said that as of Saturday, 2026 has set a record for the longest period without a hurricane since the beginning of the hurricane season in the era of satellite observations.
Please read on...
Atmospheric experts pointed out that any storm that tries to develop will encounter a "triple whammy": strong winds cut off the storm structure, dry air deprives it of its moisture supply, and downdrafts further suppress it. These three forces are all typical effects of the Holy Child phenomenon.
El Niño usually suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic, but it can encourage the development of tropical cyclones in the Pacific through moist air and weak wind shear. So far this year, storm activity in the Eastern Pacific has been nearly double the normal level, and hurricanes have lasted much longer than in previous years; activity in the Central Pacific has been about 40% higher than normal.
Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, described the eastern Pacific as being like a party, with storms appearing one after another. There have been only five small tropical storms in the Atlantic this year, but there have been 16 named storms in the eastern Pacific and 20 in the central Pacific. In the northwest Pacific Ocean where Taiwan is located, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency's quick forecast statistics, as of September 9, 24 typhoons have been generated this year, including 10 in August.
The report pointed out that forecasters had predicted months ago that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season would be less active due to the impact of El Niño. However, Brian McNoldy, a hurricane expert at the University of Miami, said that no one expected it to be so calm. "This is really unusual."
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Atlantic hurricane season to remain calm, hurricane formation unlikely in the short term
Likely · Within weeks
Eastern Pacific storm activity will remain above normal levels
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- Will this extreme divergence in Atlantic-Pacific hurricane activity continue through the end of the hurricane season?
- If El Niño intensifies, will it further suppress Atlantic storms?
- Will the unusually active eastern Pacific increase the threat of storms to Mexico and Central America?
