(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Choi Pyeong-cheon and Choi Joo-seong = The Democratic Party of Korea's candidate Kim Min-seok is assessed to have won the party heart competition at the August 17 national convention and is one step closer to the finish line.
Although delegate voting and national opinion polls remain, Candidate Kim secured nearly half of the votes from the voting rights party, which has a large portion. The National Assembly primary reflects 70% of the votes of Rights Party members and delegates and 30% of national opinion polls.
However, as the gap between Candidate Kim and Candidate Chung, which widened significantly in the Honam party member vote, which was considered the biggest battleground, narrowed in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province on the 16th, the delegate vote and national opinion polls emerged as last-minute variables.
In the voting for local rights party members in the local circuit primary that started on the 1st and ended on the same day, Candidate Kim received a cumulative vote rate of 49.91%, ahead of Candidate Chung, who recorded 41.51%, by 8.4 percentage points. This is the vote rate that does not reflect the 5% weighting of Gyeongnam, Daegu, and Gyeongbuk.
The gap between the two candidates, which was only 1.48 percentage points until the second week of the primary, widened through the third week of the Honam, Seoul, and Gyeonggi primary, where about 71.2% of the Rights Party members were concentrated, and there is an interpretation that the weight of victory was tilted toward candidate Kim.
Candidate Kim defeated Candidate Chung by 24.89% points in the voting in the Gwangju, Jeollanam-do and Jeonbuk regions the previous day.
On this day, in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, Candidate Kim (46.66%) and Candidate Jeong (46.28%) engaged in a close race with a 0.38% point difference, narrowing the cumulative gap somewhat.
By region, Candidate Kim won in Chungnam, Chungbuk, Ulsan, Jeju, Incheon, Gangwon, Gyeongbuk, Gwangju, South Jeolla, Jeonbuk, Seoul, and Gyeonggi. In particular, Gangwon (50.3%), Jeju (52.6%), Gwangju, South Jeolla Province (58.4%), and Jeonbuk (58.4%) received the majority of votes.
Candidate Chung won in Daejeon, Sejong, Busan, Gyeongnam, and Daegu. In Sejong (50.3%), a majority victory was achieved.
There is an analysis that 'myungsim' (President Lee Jae-myung's intention) may have been at work behind candidate Kim's victory in the party member vote.
The analysis is that candidate Kim, who served as the first Prime Minister of the Lee Jae-myung administration, defined candidate Chung as an anti-Myeong (anti-Lee Jae-myung) candidate while promoting the idea of stabilizing party-government relations, which influenced voter sentiment.
Candidate Kim raised his voice calling for an end to the so-called 'Ming and Qing (President Lee and Chung Cheong-rae) Great War', which was the subject of political controversy during the past year when Candidate Chung was the representative of the previous party.
In addition, the fact that Candidate Song Young-gil launched a joint attack against Candidate Chung may have worked to Candidate Kim's advantage.
As Candidate Song, who recorded a cumulative vote rate of 8.58%, focused on 'beating Jeong Cheong-rae' during the pre-election period, the confrontation structure between pro-Myung (pro-Lee Jae-myung) and pro-Cheong (pro-Jeong Cheong-rae) was strengthened.
Candidate Kim's side appears to be expecting a majority victory in the first round of voting without a runoff election according to the preferential voting system.
Considering that he received nearly a majority of the votes in the party member vote and is supported by a majority of pro-Myung faction members of the National Assembly, some analysis suggests that he may have an advantage in the delegate vote as well.
Candidate Chung is in a situation where he must achieve a reversal in the general public opinion poll and delegate vote to be announced on the 17th.
Although Candidate Chung was at a slight disadvantage in Honam, there were expectations that he could turn the situation around in Seoul and Gyeonggi, but he suffered two consecutive losses.
However, it is assessed that it has shown its potential in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province and has not lost the momentum to continue the victory through delegate voting and public opinion polls.
In order for Candidate Chung to achieve final victory, he must record a vote rate high enough to make up for his inferiority in party member votes in opinion polls targeting Democratic Party supporters and independents.
In the Supreme Council member primary election, candidates Choi Min-hee, Park Seon-won, Seo Mi-hwa, Lee Seong-yoon, and Han Min-soo (in order of cumulative votes) ranked in the top five.
Candidates Park and Suh are classified as pro-Myung faction, while candidates Choi, Lee, and Han are classified as pro-Cheong (pro-government Cheongnae) faction.
As pro-Blue candidates ranked 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the Seoul and Gyeonggi polls, attention is focused on whether there will be a change in the final rankings through national opinion polls.
The gap in cumulative votes between first place candidate Choi and second place candidate Park is only 0.31%p. Candidate Park was in first place until the day before, but the rankings were reversed in the Seoul and Gyeonggi polls.
The position of senior supreme council member, held by the candidate who won first place, is a position that stands right next to the next representative for two years, so the competition between the pro-Ming faction and the pro-Qing faction is fierce.
Pro-Qing and pro-Ming candidates are competing for fifth place, the last position on the Supreme Council.
The importance of national opinion polls has grown even more as candidates for 4th place Lee Seong-yoon (13.94%), 5th place candidate Han Min-soo (13.77%), and 6th place candidate Kim Yong (13.62%) are competing very closely.
Candidate Lee, who was in 6th place in cumulative votes until the day before, jumped to 4th place after the Seoul and Gyeonggi primary, while Candidate Kim, who was in 4th place, dropped to 6th place.
According to the results of the party member vote, the top members of the next leadership will consist of three pro-Cheong faction members and two pro-Myung faction members.
