[Market View] Can we protect ‘5,000 blood’… Expectations for buying at low prices following the recent slump

Attention is being paid to whether KOSPI on the 9th will attempt a rebound due to the backlash buying trend following the sharp decline of the previous trading day.

KOSPI ended trading at 5,059.69, down 324.11 points (6.02%) from the previous trading day, the 6th.

Based on the closing price, it is the lowest level in about 7 months since it recorded 5,052.46 on March 31st.

The index started at 5,263.26, down 120.54 points (2.24%) from the previous day, and then plummeted to 4,911.28, down 8.78% right after opening, causing the '5,000 PPI' (KOSPI 5,000) to collapse during the day.

It has been 9 months since February 6 that the intraday index fell below the 5,000 level.

Due to the sharp decline, circuit breakers and selling sidecars were activated one after another in the morning stock market.

In terms of supply and demand, foreign investors net sold KRW 2.769 trillion, while institutions and individuals net bought KRW 1.7041 trillion and KRW 601 billion.

Including the aftermarket, foreigners had a selling advantage of KRW 2.6897 trillion, while institutions and individuals had a buying advantage of KRW 1.7091 trillion and KRW 521 billion.

KOSPI plunged due to a sell-off centered on technology stocks such as semiconductors due to concerns about regulation of AI data centers following the Democratic Party's landslide victory in the New York stock market.

The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.52% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also fell 12.25%.

Accordingly, Samsung Electronics [005930] and SK Hynix [000660], the 'two top' semiconductor stocks in the domestic stock market, plummeted by 11.07% and 13.84% at one time, putting downward pressure on the index.

Samsung Electronics closed regular trading at 188,700 won, down 6.35%, returning '200,000 electronics', and SK Hynix closed at 1,132,000 won, down 10.44%.

The relevant authorities began preparing measures and decided to exempt securities companies from their obligation to maintain credit loan collateral ratio (140%) for three months.

On this day, KOSPI is expected to start on the rise due to an influx of buying pressure in response to the sharp drop the previous trading day.

Last weekend, in the New York stock market, there was a buying trend at low prices due to the sharp decline in technology stocks, and the stock prices and indices of related stocks generally rebounded.

The Nasdaq composite index rose 1.09%, and the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index also rose 0.31%. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.46%.

Major semiconductor stocks such as NVIDIA (2.78%), AMD (11.04%), and Micron (5.12%) rebounded, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also surged 4.2%.

Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Korea Stock Market Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) rose 4.07% and MSCI Emerging Index ETF rose 2.20%.

KOSPI 200 night futures also rebounded 1.60%.

Seo Sang-young, managing director of Mirae Asset Securities, predicted, "On Monday (9th), the Korean stock market will start on the rise thanks to the backlash buying following the sharp decline and the strength of U.S. semiconductor stocks." He added, "The delay in new data center licensing does not mean a decrease in memory demand for existing servers, and the key factors of the industry, such as memory supply shortage and price rise, have not been damaged in a short period of time. Therefore, buying pressure will flow in due to the excessive drop."

He pointed out, "This week, the actual impact of data center regulations, the credit risks of Coreweave and Nevius, inflation and government bond bidding, and interest rate changes according to remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) members will determine the market direction."

He said, "The Korean stock market is also important in terms of changes in foreign supply and demand due to option expiration on the 12th and regular changes in MSCI. In particular, as the KOSPI's 12-month forward PER (price-to-earnings ratio) is below 4 times, undervaluation has deepened compared to performance, so if the AI ​​demand and semiconductor profit outlook is maintained and interest rates are stabilized, the rebound will expand."

Lee Je-won, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, said, “The current plunge is a sell-off due to concerns about future investment reduction and supply-demand imbalance rather than the actual confirmed damage to fundamentals.”

He said that it is not the time to sell, but said, “Further expansion of the proportion should be responded to by checking the 2028 EPS (earnings per share) outlook and whether the credit risk of AI infrastructure companies is stable.”