Taiwan's sea bream fry stocking volume has dropped sharply by 52.9%, and a shortage of raw fish is expected next year

Taiwan's sea bream fry stocking volume has dropped by 52.9%. (File photo, taken by reporter Cai Zongxun)

According to the latest industry data, sales of snapper fry in Taiwan from January to July 2026 were only 56.89 million, a sharp drop of 63.84 million from the same period last year, a decrease of 52.9%. At the same time, the amount of seedlings released in China's major production areas in the first half of the year is also estimated to have dropped sharply by 40% to 50%. As the world's two largest suppliers of Asian frozen tilapia, farmers in Taiwan and China have significantly reduced their stocking volumes due to previous losses at low prices. This move will directly lead to a serious shortage of raw fish in the future.

In terms of export markets, the total import volume of frozen tilapia strips in the United States in the first half of 2026 was 20,569 metric tons (a year-on-year decrease of 22.2%), of which China accounted for 65.9% and Taiwan accounted for 20.3%. The average prices in China and Taiwan fell by 32% and 23.9% respectively; fillet imports also fell by 10% to 44,467 metric tons (China accounted for 80.1%).

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Guo Jianxian, chairman of the Taiwan Sea Bream Association, analyzed that if demand in the United States picks up from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, the market is likely to turn from a "buyer's market" to a "processing factory grabbing fish" when the supply of fry has not been replenished. The purchase price of processing plants in Guangdong and Guangxi, China, has shown signs of rebound, rising by about NT$1 per kilogram.

Guo Jianxian emphasized that September and October this year will be the period of destocking and price bottoming for Taiwan sea bream. Starting from the fourth quarter, we need to pay close attention to the gap of raw fish in the size of 600-800 grams. The probability of "a significant recovery in poolside prices" from the first to the second quarter of next year has increased significantly. Fish prices have begun to rise slightly this week, and there are now signs of a shortage of compliant fish. Farmers are urged to seize the opportunity to stock fish as soon as possible during the fry season, which is not yet over, to avoid falling into the dilemma of "price but no fish".

Taiwan's sea bream fry stocking volume has dropped by 52.9%. (File photo, taken by reporter Cai Zongxun)

Taiwan's sea bream processing is expected to be short of fish next year. (File photo, taken by reporter Cai Zongxun)