CCTV News, Beijing, September 12 (Reporter Zheng Guohua) According to the Economic Voice of China Central Radio and Television, in September this year, the technology track received continued attention from funds, and related financial products were intensively launched. On September 4, the first batch of 8 GEM computing power infrastructure ETFs went on sale, one of which announced the end of fundraising on the same day; on September 9, 6 technological innovation company bonds were issued together.
The long-term industry trend of the technology track has not changed, but there are opinions that the market investment logic has changed: the market bid farewell to general rise, more emphasis is placed on the realization of the company's real performance, and the structural differentiation of the sector will intensify. The technology market has gone from general growth to divergence. How should ordinary investors invest?
Driving changes: Performance-based, not story-driven
Tian Lihui, a professor of finance at Nankai University, summarized the driving force of this round of technology market as three forces: technological breakthroughs, domestic substitution and the explosion of demand for AI computing power. The three form a synergistic amplification effect rather than a simple superposition. In his view, this round of market prices is not based on stories, but is supported by real performance: the leading optical module company reported growth in operating income and net profit for the first half of the year; profits of memory chips have improved due to rising prices; orders for some computing power chain companies have been scheduled for next year. "Behind this round of rise is a performance chain, which does not mean there will be no correction, but it is essentially different from a market driven purely by stories."
Zhang Yi, chief economist of Financial Street Securities, gave an analysis from the perspective of industrial prosperity: the electronics industry is in "a period of economic expansion that has been rare in the past 20 years." In Zhang Yi's view, there are multiple factors behind the emergence of this round of market: on the one hand, the electronics industry itself is in an upward profit cycle; on the other hand, limited funds are concentrated on chasing a few high-prosperity tracks, further pushing up the market prices of related sectors.
Differences in pricing: traditional industries look at the present, while technology industries look at the future
Tian Lihui summed it up in one sentence: "Traditional industries look at the present, and the technology industry looks at the future." The difference between the future profits of traditional industries and the current level is relatively small, and the valuation is relatively stable; the essence of pricing of technology stocks is to price the company's future industrial status, and the stock price is the discount of future cash flow. There is great uncertainty in the discount rate, growth rate, and final market share. This difference brings three characteristics to the technology industry: first, high stock price fluctuations have become the norm, and market adjustments to future expectations will trigger price fluctuations; second, stock valuations lack clear anchors, and the technology industry’s technology cycles change rapidly, making it difficult to define a reasonable price-earnings ratio range for the industry; third, technology iterations are frequent and the industry competition pattern is unstable. Investment in technology targets should be appropriately diversified.
"Expectation difference" is the key to understanding the trend of technology stocks. Tian Lihui gave an example: A company's semi-annual profit increased by 80% year-on-year. If the market had previously expected 100%, the stock price may fall because it "did not meet expectations." On the other hand, if the profit is expected to increase by 20% year-on-year and the actual year-on-year increase is 80%, the stock price will most likely rise. Zhang Yi's analysis of "expected difference" is more concise: "Technology stock trading is never about whether the current situation is good or not, but whether it exceeds expectations and imagination."
Allocation method: Fund priority, three-tier allocation
Tian Lihui suggested that funds have a higher priority than individual stocks. The technology industry has high information thresholds, individual stocks are volatile, and technical routes are complex. ETFs can diversify some risks. Three points should be considered when choosing ETFs: large scale, clear component structure, and low fees. If the scale is too small, there is a risk of liquidation. If the component structure is unclear, it means you don’t know what you are buying. If the fee rate is too high, the income will be reduced. Active funds depend on the fund manager's years of experience and whether the investment framework is stable, whether historical performance is sustainable, and whether the top ten heavyweight stocks are related to the fund name.
In terms of asset allocation, Tian Lihui recommends a three-tier structure: safety cushion (monetary funds, treasury bonds, etc.): accounting for about 30%, stable asset guarantee; core market (broad-based index, high-quality blue chip stocks): accounting for more than 50%, long-term holding; satellite layer (technological high-risk assets): accounting for no more than 20%.
Zhang Yi emphasized the importance of "timing". Investors should first complete the core judgment at the strategic level - "whether the technology market spurred by AI is still there", and then consider position allocation. He mentioned that when the market has a sharp correction and the sentiment is depressed, we must dare to make plans, and when the cumulative increase of the sector is high, we must take profits and reduce positions. In his view, the AI-driven technology market is far from over, and substantial adjustments are often a better layout window.
