[US midterm election] There was no ‘Shy Trump’… 'Angry Trump' votes influence the outcome (comprehensive)

(Washington = Yonhap News) Correspondent Lee Yu-mi = As the Democratic Party achieved a landslide victory in the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, taking back both the Senate and House of Representatives, there is analysis that the so-called 'Shy Trump' phenomenon, which overturned opinion poll predictions in each past election, has disappeared this time.

It is assessed that the outcome of the election was influenced by angry voters who were dissatisfied with the economic and foreign policies of the second Trump administration, rather than President Trump's hidden supporters who were rarely captured in public opinion polls.

As the midterm election counting drew to a close on the 4th (local time), the Democratic Party regained the majority position in the House of Representatives as expected and also won the Senate, taking control of both houses of Congress.

In particular, the Democratic Party succeeded in taking away Senate seats currently held by the Republican Party in seven states, including North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, and Maine.

Considering only the seven states that were considered the biggest battlegrounds, the Democratic Party won all six except Alaska, where the winner was not confirmed.

This is consistent with the Democratic Party's lead shown in various opinion polls before the election, suggesting that the 'Shy Trump' phenomenon, which overturned opinion poll predictions in past presidential elections, did not exert much force this time.

'Shy Trump' is a phenomenon in which Trump supporters who do not respond well to public opinion polls or do not reveal their political inclinations give strength to President Trump in actual voting.

During the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections, 'Shy Trump' has been considered a representative variable in election prediction as President Trump recorded a higher vote rate than the trend in opinion polls.

However, in this midterm election, antipathy and disappointment with the second Trump administration appear to have been voters' main motivation for voting.

According to the results of an exit poll of voters conducted by public opinion polling agency SSRS at the request of major broadcasting companies, 43% of respondents said they voted to express their opposition to President Trump, while only 16% of respondents said they voted to express their support.

39% of respondents chose 'the economy' as the most important problem facing the United States, and 32% chose 'the state of democracy'. Additionally, 54% of respondents said 'government corruption' had a decisive influence on their voting decision, while 49% said 'cost of living'.

This part shows that economic difficulties and dissatisfaction with government operations, in addition to antipathy toward President Trump, may have acted as a driving force driving voters to the polls.

The New York Times (NYT) analyzed that President Trump effectively made this midterm election a vote of confidence in himself, but ultimately faced strong backlash from voters.

During the election campaign, President Trump appealed to voters to rally support by repeating the words "Think of me on the ballot" 47 times. However, voters showed their votes in the opposite direction from what President Trump had expected.

The NYT pointed out that voters who were disappointed by high oil prices, the protracted war with Iran, and suspicions that President Trump and his associates were pursuing private interests turned their backs on the Republican Party or did not come to the polls.

In an interview with the NYT on the night of the 3rd, when the election results were outlined, President Trump appeared to be trying to withdraw from the theory of responsibility, saying, "I wasn't on the ballot. Because I wasn't on the ballot, I wasn't able to get enough people to the polls."

During the campaign period, he asked people to vote as if he were running for office himself, defining the election as a vote of confidence in himself, and after losing, he shifted the blame to the Republican candidates by claiming that he was not a candidate.

In particular, this election is seen as a notable shift in votes from the Republican Party's traditional support base to the Democratic Party.

According to preliminary findings from the University of Chicago Public Opinion Research Center (NORC) reported by the Washington Post (WP), compared to the 2024 presidential election, the shift in support toward the Democratic Party among Hispanics, Catholics, and voters under 30 reached double-digit points.

Voters with less than a college degree, who supported President Trump by more than 12 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, also supported the Democratic candidate at 49% and the Republican candidate at 47% this time.

Male voters also supported President Trump more, 55% to 43%, in the 2024 presidential election, but it was found that they gave slightly more votes to the Democratic candidate in this election.

It was analyzed that the decline in voting participation among Republican supporters also had an effect on the Democratic Party's victory. Based on preliminary voter turnout data, WP reported that the voter turnout among Republican supporters was lower than four years ago.

While antipathy toward President Trump stimulated voting participation among Democratic Party supporters, it shows that within the Republican Party, unity around President Trump may have weakened.

Previously, Charlie Cook, founder of the US election analysis agency 'Cook Political Report', analyzed that the key variable in this midterm election is not moderates or independents, but traditional Republican supporters who are disappointed with President Trump.

Even if voters in rural areas and small towns who are experiencing economic difficulties due to high oil prices, tariffs, trade wars, and the Iran war do not vote for Democratic candidates, they may express their dissatisfaction by giving up voting or skipping voting for Republican candidates.

However, even if the results of this election mean a weakening of President Trump's political influence, some analyzes say that it is too early to conclude that Trump's MAGA (Make America Great Again) support base itself has collapsed.

“This does not mean that the Maga coalition is collapsing,” UCLA professor Lynn Vavrek told the NYT. As high prices were the most important issue in this election, it is difficult to interpret the election results as a fundamental change in voters’ political inclinations.