China News Service, Beijing, October 19 (Tao Siyue) The National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the first three quarters on the 19th, and China News Service held the "Economic Situation Analysis Meeting for the Third Quarter of 2026" on the same day. Lu Liping, a professor at the School of Finance at Renmin University of China and deputy director of the China Banking Research Center, said that the current economy shows obvious differentiation in demand, price, and growth momentum, and policies are shifting from short-term stimulation to long-term system construction.
Lu Liping noticed that at the demand level, export performance was outstanding, but total retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment were weak; in terms of price, PPI (industrial producer price index) increased by 5% year-on-year in September, and CPI (consumer price index) increased by 5% year-on-year. It increased by 0.9% year-on-year, which means that "price changes on the production side have not been fully transmitted to the consumer side"; in terms of growth momentum, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 16.7% year-on-year in August, and real estate investment fell by 19.9% from January to August. The old and new drivers are clearly hot and cold.
Specifically, the foreign trade structure continues to be optimized. In the first three quarters, my country's exports of goods trade increased by 16.4%. The equipment manufacturing industry contributed nearly 90% of the export increase. China's own brands accounted for 24.8%. Export products were transformed into mid-to-high-end products. The consumption structure is differentiated, with communication equipment growing rapidly, gold, silver, jewelry and home furnishing retail sales weakening, and National Day tourism consumption picking up, laying the foundation for subsequent consumption.
"The total amount of investment is shrinking." Lu Liping said, but investment in intellectual property products and high-tech industries has maintained a rapid growth rate. It can be said that there is a general trend of growth in investment in new productivity. On the corporate side, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size across the country increased by 15.7% from January to August. “Profits have been created, but they exist in the form of accounts receivable, which puts a certain amount of pressure on the cash flow of enterprises.”
Lu Liping judged that the economic rhythm in the fourth quarter was stable, showing a trend of "low at first and then stable". 800 billion yuan of new policy financial instruments and 250 billion yuan of consumer goods trade-in funds have been released. In addition, external demand has strong inertia, which jointly support the achievement of the full-year goals.
He believes that fiscal and monetary policies will work together, and at the same time, the focus of policy is changing, "from short-term stimulation to long-term system construction and mechanism building." The fiscal policy will increase countercyclical adjustments and monetary policy will remain moderately loose; institutional measures will be introduced around new productivity, income distribution, social security, and consumption tax reform to take into account both short-term stable growth and medium- and long-term development.
Lu Liping concluded that the economy was stable and improving in the first three quarters. In the future, we must promote better coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, coordinate short-term, medium-term and long-term development goals, and consolidate the driving force for sustainable economic development through institutional reforms.
