
美國國會已通過對台140億美元軍售案,但白宮尚未批准。華府智庫哈德遜研究所資深研究員森安健指出,中方試圖透過取消川習會的威脅來影響美方決策,但實際上川普政府去年已同意110億美元對台軍售,若12月底前伊朗與烏克蘭議題無法合作,川普可能進行軍售,此舉不構成棄台訊息。
AI-generated summary
美國國會已通過對台140億美元軍售案,但待白宮批准。川普與習近平已於9月、11月及12月進行多次會晤,焦點包括伊朗與烏克蘭議題。中方曾暗示若美方進行對台軍售將取消川習會。
美國政界關切川習會後對台軍售議題,華府智庫哈德遜研究所資深研究員森安健指出,中方意圖掌握話語權.形塑可以影響美國決策的論述。川普需要北京在伊朗與烏克蘭戰事的協助,如果各方在12月底前無法合作,相信會進行軍售。
美國國會已通過140億美元對台軍售案,白宮尚未批准,兩黨議員多次呼籲總統川普(Donald Trump)儘速同意,國會也已討論未來的可能軍售。
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川普與中國國家主席習近平23至25日在華府舉行今年第2次峰會,各界關注美國行政部門對140億美元軍售案的動向。對此華府政界在會前有不同說法,媒體報導有機會在年底2次川習後放行,也有消息指會有金額較小的個別軍售案。
華府智庫哈德遜研究所(Hudson Institute)資深研究員森安健接受中央社訪問分析,對川普來說,對台軍售是他手上的牌,可在習近平面前善用這項優勢;9月、11月與12月共3次會晤,川普可能需要讓伊朗、烏克蘭兩場戰事停火,並尋求中方對此讓步。
他認為,如果各方在12月底前無法合作,相信川普會進行軍售。但這不用急,川普政府去年已同意對台出售110億美元的軍備包裹,這不是所謂棄台論的訊息。
北京希望川普調整對台說法,改變美方一貫的不支持台獨為反對台獨,但中方也認為難度很高,多次峰會焦點轉為施壓對台軍售,有媒體報導指中方有意重提美中有關1982年的八一七公報。
森安健指出,這是一個大架構,中國意在形塑,如果川普同意軍售將取消9月的會晤,他們想掌握話語權,但結果不會如此。
他說:「美中都瞭解必然會有軍售,時間可能在12月或之後,中方早前釋出如果有軍售將取消9月會晤的訊息,旨在造成對(美國對台軍售)決定有影響力的印象,但實際上沒有。中方想掌握話語權,這是他們正在使用的新手法。」(編輯:陳慧萍)1150926
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
若12月底前伊朗與烏克蘭議題無法合作,川普將進行對台軍售
Likely · Within months
中方將繼續透過取消川習會的威脅來影響美方對台軍售決策
Possible · Within months

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