Experts named factors supporting the ruble exchange rate in the fall

In the fall, the ruble exchange rate will be supported by three main factors - high world oil prices, the likely tightening of US sanctions against Russia's key partners and the tough monetary policy of the Central Bank (CB). This was stated by Associate Professor of the Department of Strategic and Innovative Development of the Financial University Mikhail Khachaturyan. His words are quoted by Prime.

The lack of progress in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, he explained, is unlikely to contribute to the speedy opening of a key logistics artery in the Middle East. A prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz will most likely keep world oil prices at a high level, which will play into the hands of the ruble.

US sanctions pressure, he added, may increase, but most likely against Russia’s partners, and not directly. We are talking about the so-called “hell package”, previously approved by the US Congress. The bill allows the head of the White House, Donald Trump, at his discretion, to impose import duties of up to 100 percent on products from countries that purchase Russian raw materials.

In this case, China and India will be under attack, Khachaturian believes. Such a practice would likely raise the risk of retaliation, which would be disadvantageous for Washington. This means that the potential impact of “hellish sanctions” on the ruble exchange rate will be limited, the analyst noted.

Finally, the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy, according to Khachaturyan, will also support the Russian currency in the rest of the year. A high key rate, he explained, will maintain the attractiveness of ruble deposits among the population, which will contribute to sustainable demand. Taking into account all the above factors, the dollar exchange rate towards the end of the year (in October-December) will fluctuate in the range of 80-85 rubles, the expert predicted.

Additional support for the ruble at the end of September, Bitbanker analyst Andrey Poroshin noted earlier, will come from the approach of the next tax period in Russia. At this time, the federal budget receives payments from exporters for mineral extraction tax, income tax and excise taxes. The situation, explained the head of Alfa-Forex, Guzel Protsenko, will also be affected by the expected reduction in currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance within the framework of the budget rule. This factor, she believes, will prevent the ruble from collapsing in the medium term.